BW Online | August 2, 2004 | Bush's Biggest Deficit: Consistency:
This year's budgetary shortfall will be bigger than ever -- but by
White House math, that's a victory. In its latest fiscal forecast,
released on July 30, the Bush Administration projects the deficit for
the year ending on Sept. 30 will hit $445 billion. That would be $70
billion more than the record $375 billion deficit we hit last year.
According to the White House and its GOP allies, this shows great
progress in the battle against deficits.
"Because the
President's economic policies are working," says Budget Director Joshua
B. Bolten, "We are ahead of pace to meet the goal of cutting the
deficit in half within five years." Adds House Budget Committee
Chairman Jim Nussle (R-Okla.): "Our budget outlook has significantly
improved in the past seven months due to strong economic growth and
spending restraint."
MISOVERESTIMATE. Say what? How
does the idea of the deficit getting $70 billion bigger translate into
fiscal success? It's easy, when you combine Washington's bizarre budget
accounting rules, the increasingly superheated campaign season, and
some Orwellian rhetoric. You see, last February, President Bush
projected the deficit for this year would hit $521 billion. Now, thanks
to a growing economy, the Bushies figure it will come in $76 billion
below that number. Thus, we have a whole new way to game the budget
debate: Overestimate deficits at the beginning of the year, come in
below that forecast, and declare victory.
It's a pity that the real world isn't that rosy....
THE
REAL NUMBERS. And what about Bush's promise to cut the deficit in half
in five years? The new Bush budget claims he can do it even faster --
by 2007. But don't hold your breath. That happy prediction assumes the
U.S. will spend no more money on Iraq and Afghanistan after Sept. 30.
And it ignores the need to fix the dreaded alternative minimum tax
(AMT). Without a fix, the levy will hit more than 30 million taxpayers
by the end of the decade.... If anyone pays attention to the real
numbers, the fiscal situation is more bad news for Bush's reelection
chances and good news for his newly minted Democratic challenger, John
Kerry.
The bad news for Kerry, of course, is that if
gets elected, he'll actually have to do something about this mess. And
while he at least can credibly claim he won't make matters much worse,
he hasn't yet shown any inclination to make things better.
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