Senior intelligence sources in the U.S., as well as officials in the Middle East, claim that the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has made a strategic decision to confront American forces in Iraq's Shi'a heartland. Those senior intelligence sources (a total of five separate individuals who either now serve or have served in key intelligence positions) base their belief on evidence showing that Iran has armed Shi'a groups in southern Iraq with sophisticated weaponry, has provided political and military guidance to Shi'a groups, has made and maintained contacts with Sunni resistance leaders in "the Sunni triangle" in central Iraq, and is pursuing a program of escalating confrontations between Shia militias and American troops. Among the weapons shipped to the Shi'a militants are sophisticated anti-tank rockets and anti-aircraft missiles, according to these sources.
"The rhetoric coming out of the Bush administration has convinced Iran that military conflict is inevitable and rather than await an attack at a time and place of America's choosing, the Iranians will try to inflict significant damage to U.S. forces on Iraqi soil by means of the Mahdi Army and other Shi'a groups," an informed intelligence source told This Is Rumor Control. Senior officials of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency would not comment on these reports, but a former senior intelligence officer said that the conclusion was "a no brainer." As he noted: "If you had U.S. troops on your doorstep and George Bush calling you a part of the axis of evil you would take steps to protect yourself. And it would be better to protect yourself on Iraqi soil than to have to do so on Iranian soil. That is what they are doing. Are we surprised? We shouldn't be."
The conclusion that Iran is willing to fight a proxy war in Iraq has had little apparent impact on American planning. The assault by U.S. Marines in Najaf and the attempt to arrest Moqtada al-Sadr went forward despite warnings from Iran that U.S. actions could have dire consequences. "In the name of liberal democracy, one of the worst crimes against humanity is being committed in Iraq, especially in the holy city of Najaf," Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei said on Wednesday. "The U.S. has begun shedding blood in one of the holiest cities of the Muslims. The Iraqi people will not leave such an atrocity unanswered."
Khamenei's harsh condemnation seemed to buttress administration claims that Iranian meddling accounts for the extreme Shia resistance to American goals in Iraq. But one former intelligence official paints a far different picture -- claiming that the Bush administration has consistently and often deliberately implemented political initiatives that have alienated large segments of the Shia population. The initiatives have forced moderate Shias to line up alongside the Iranians and Moqtada al-Sadr against the United States: "The Shia should have been one of the U.S. coalition's staunchest allies, but the heavy-handed -- bordering on racist -- attitude and behavior of the U.S. forces is creating hostility even amongst the rank-and-file," this former officer says. "The traditional Iraqi Shia skepticism of Iranian motives is being subsumed by hostility towards the U.S., despite the fact that many leading Shia politicians suspect that Iran harbors territorial ambitions toward Iraq lands because of the presence of huge oil reserves in the Aal Majnoon field."
The U.S. has consistently overplayed its hand with the Shia, this source says -- to the point that American actions have given legitimacy to Iraqi figures that would otherwise have been marginalized. This extends to former Pentagon favorite Ahmed Chalabi, who is now openly aligned with the Iranians. As a sign of CIA spite towards Chalabi, the Iraqi interim government charged him with counterfeiting and his nephew, Salem Chalabi with murder. The charges against Ahmed Chalabi are thought by many Iraqis to be trumped up, while those against his nephew are viewed as politically motivated. "It is widely known in Iraq that Salem Chalabi did not commit the deed," a well-informed observer told This Is Rumor Control. "The individual who carried out the killing is a long-time aid of Ahmed Chalabi called Oras Habib who is currently in Iran." [This Is Rumor Control - News & Analysis On the Appalling Mess We're In]
