Debka has some interesting analysis that indicates that the US is in a bind. The recent moves to empower Iraqi defense forces to take control of city centers is premature (as proved in the brazen attack in Fallujah yesterday). At the same time the US is committed to a shift of power this summer and the UN is talking about elections this fall. There are three potential outcomes for this:
- A full civil war that draws in adjacent powers.
- Democracy and stability under Sunni leadership.
- More US occupation but with increasing resistance.
How would you assign the odds (in percentages) for each outcome? [John Robb's Weblog]
I think the odds are: civil war 20%, more occupation 80%, no chance of democracy and stability under Sunni leadership. Note however that stability under Sunni leadership would be possible, if the Feds decide to install their own version of Saddam. I suspect there's actually a pretty good chance of that happening.
1:32:34 PM 
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