Happily Ever After, Perhaps
Jan 4, 2004 -- As we head into 2004 it is looking like it's going to be a struggle for the Democrats to defeat Bush. The past 12 months events have served to prop up an administration plagued by scandal, a bad economy, and Bush's strange use of english. International events though have served to provide an early boost to the economy, and the peaceful settlements of the Iraq and North Korea situations appear to have validated the Administrations positions.
As we headed to war in January who could have guessed that it would end in peace, with nary a shot being fired. The visits by the 'three wise-men' could not have gone better. First the Russian delegation arrived, then the EU (led by France and Germany), and lastly the Arab League paid a visit. All three arrived within days of what was expected to be the beginning of the air war.
All three delegations had pretty much the same perspective and message: "war will happen, you will lose, and you will die." While they expressed some irritation with the Bush rhetoric, they all came to the same conclusion: Saddam Hussein must go. Hussein was offered protected exile, along with some of his top aides. They would be dispersed over a number of countries and allowed to live in peace.
At first Saddam Hussein ranted and raved about the injustice of it all, but in the end he quietly slipped out of Iraq, and is now living in Tunisia. Iraq woke up one morning to find that they were ruled by a Council of Reconciliation. The road to peace had begun. Part of the deal with the three was that Iraq would get democracy, and we are now seeing the flow of billions of dollars for rebuilding a country devastated by more than 20 years of war.
With Iraq out of the way, Bush was able to point his full attention on North Korea. Over a period of several months diplomats scuttled back and forth between the US, China, and the Koreas. In the end Kim agreed to scrap; once and for all, the plants in exchange for implementation of the now-sweetened original agreements that the Bush administration had been dragging it's feet on.
So where are we at the beginning of this new year? The economy has lifted somewhat due to the lack of a war, though corporate scandals continue to drag it down. With corporations cutting cost by cutting employees, we are seeing historically high extended unemployment. The situation in North Korea is really not settled, as the madman is still in power, but at least the two Koreas have a chance to let things work out. Iraq may be done, but the Israeli conflict still drags on, and Iran still poses questions. Where will we be in another year?
This is the somewhat-happy-ending scenario. It is also a very real possibility. I expect that we will see delegations to Saddam Hussein by the end of this month, trying to get him to avoid war. How he reacts will determine much...mj
12:15:55 PM 
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