2004 Presidential Election
Dazed and Confused Coverage of the 2004 Presidential Election

 


















































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  Friday, August 20, 2004


2004 Presidential Election

Dave Winer is looking for Republican Webloggers that will be at the Republican National Convention. Here's his explanation of why he is running an aggregator for the RNC.

New York has a website with information for protesters.

Electoral-vote.com: "Today we have lots of polls to report, including Florida and Ohio. Survey USA puts Kerry ahead 47% to 46% there with Nader at 2%. Conversely, Bush is a hair ahead in Ohio at 48% to 46% according to the University of Cincinatti, a new entrant into the polling sweepstakes. Both states are still statistically tied of course. A very strange Survey USA poll puts Bush within 3% of Kerry in California, 49% to 46%. I don't believe that for a second. Remember that polls are always reported with a margin of error (MoE). For state polls, it is nearly always 3.5% to 4%, so we don't report it. What this means is that if you repeat the poll over and over, 95% of the time the difference between the true (unknown) mean and the measured mean will be no more than the MoE. A consequence of this is that 5% of the time, the measured mean will be off by more than the MoE. I don't know if this is the case here, but the data are very suspect. There is no reason to think Survey USA is cheating here. This may just be a statistical outlier. Kerry is maintaining his small (3%) lead in Minnesota. The tightness of the race there is a welcome surprise to Bush. He probably won't win it, but he can force Kerry to spend time and money on what should have been an easy win. The reverse holds for Virginia and Arkansas though, and maybe Colorado, but I'd like to see a few more polls before I take that too seriously. One poll does not an election make, or something like that. Especially not in August."

John Kerry started pushing back yesterday against the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad, according to the AP via the Rocky. The Daily Kos is linking to a New York Times article that "SHREDS the Swift Boat liars." The Times piece includes a graphic of the connections between the Swift Boat Veterans and the Bush administration. You gotta love the Internet.
6:31:40 AM    



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