they're still not going after downloaders. They're going after people who share lots and lots of files.

All a matter of time, my friend, all a matter of time. When enough of the people doing the sharing are in foreign countries and out of the reach of U.S. lawsuits, so that suing sharers is not something that will help, downloaders will be sued.

But right now the RIAA gets the most bang for its lawyer buck going after sharers.

It's only rational.

Things happen step by rational step.

Throwing a couple kids in jailing/fining them is not going to stop the 100 million people who are currently sharing music from doing so.

When there is a viable commercial alternative, and not using it runs a risk of jail time, and it isn't TOO absurdly expensive, people will use it like they use cable TV today.

Apparently the upcoming Apple service will allow people to get their downloaded music into their iPods. If they can get all the major labels signed, it will be the beginning of the end of people commonly choosing illegal downloading. (BTW, correct me if I'm wrong -- I THINK Apple's will be the first legal service that legally enables doesnloaded music into portable players. Let me know if you know otherwise.)

Some people always do it the illegal way, of course, just as when I was in college, I knew some people who routinely shoplifted albums from the campus bookstore, with no compunction about it.

Most won't, because there will be a legal, more convenient alternative that won't be impossibly expensive.

One note I want to make on all the above though. I think it is really foolhardy to claim to know what's going to happpen. I think the winners are those who constantly make their best guess, and are ego-less enough to change that guess quickly if contradictory evidence comes in. Nobody is right all the time, but by being sensitive to happenings, one can be right more often... and that's something useful to do if one wants to help a business succeed.

So all I'm saying is that the above is my best guess now, to be refined as evidence comes in. .
1:39:48 PM