Microsoft as the pillar of the market
An interesting observations about what is keeping Microsoft up, and the attendant risks.
Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) is on pace for about 160% daily volume and is doing a great job of propping up all three of the major indices. Lots of folks are looking for good news there. If it does come, we are setting up for a "sell on the news" reaction unless it is something really great and unexpected. A slight increase in guidance that everyone knows is conservative to begin with probably won't cut it.
Who knows, who knows. It's just been so messy in the sector. A few places I feel good about are 1) MSN -- by all accounts, they are getting serious subscriber gains with their latest anti-AOL promotion, 2) Xbox, oddly enough, we're seeing big sales pickups in the games on the heels of the price drop and you've got to believe that the COGS on the XBox itself have been coming down as well, 3) XP -- i'm not thinking about huge numbers, but we're coming to the end of hte first wave of enterprise evaluations and the beginnings of somie installations and 4) PC Sales -- remember, Intel said they're revenue shortfall was due to bad product mix -- they're selling plenty of chips, just too many of the cheaps ones.
12:02:06 PM 
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