What is "Conservative"?
From realmoney.com:
Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) is helping to hold the market up a bit. Goldman says that estimates may be conservative. Has Microsoft ever not been conservative with its guidance? The phrase "grasping at straws" comes to mind.
Microsoft is almost the only stock on my radar that is up today. And its spent some time in the red, not moving much more than 1/2 a point either way. But in a crushing market, its the one thing that is holding the rest of the market(s) (it's one of two stocks on the Nasaq, the S&P and the Dow30 indices) from complete collapse today.
Still, if Goldman -- the same Goldman that brought down estimates in March-- actually raises its conservative, stodgy head and feels it providant to reitereate the obvious -- that the estimates are likely conservative -- perhaps that's indicative.
Capital Budgets Returning?
The analysts are saying that they are. So is Soundview -- an analyst house, in a new report "It's almost Morning in Silicon Valley." There is an interesting analysis by Doug Kass on realmoney.com that an aspect of last year's tax bill -- acceleratated depreciation incentives. Berman concludes that "even if most American corporations chose not to grow their after-tax spending on technology in the next twelve months, corporate IT cash outlays can now grow appreciably." As the penalty for waiting to buy into 2003 is large, Berman sees the stimulus package as a meaningful catalyst to spending in the current year.
Also they make this note: "psychology, fundamental appearances, institutional portfolio weightings in tech and valuations are not likely to get a lot more depressed than they already are."
One would hope...
10:19:17 AM 
|
