To follow on to Scott Peck's People of the Lie,
one of the current memes in the business press is that oil prices are
high because there market speculation over "instability in Venezuela."
This
sort of flagrant public hypocrisy would be bad enough coming from any
individual, but coming from people who are providing investment advice,
they amount to malfeasance. Consider these points that might weigh in
judging the stability of a country stable:
1. Government. The
legitimacy of the vote for Hugo Chavez is almost unquestioned. The
legitimacy of the vote for George Bush is widely questioned. Chavez
handily survived a recall election in which his opposition had a huge
media advantage. Could George Bush do the same?
2. Financial.Venezuela has balanced its budgets. The US is running massive
government deficits. Venezuela has a huge trade surplus, becoming a
creditor nation. The US is running a huge trade deficit and is becoming
a debtor nation.
3. Social.Chavez is loved by the 70% of the
population that is poor and hated by the 10% of the population that is
wealthy. Bush's disapproval is approaching 60%, while his approval may
have fallen below 40%.
4. Global.Venezuela is at peace. The
United States is in an intractable war. Venezuela is widely admired
among its peers in Latin America and is building ties to Asia. The US
is increasingly disliked among its European peers, and is on a path to
confrontation with Asia.
Calling Venezuela "unstable" amounts
to up-is-downism. It is Washington, DC that is unstable, so unstable
that they want to assassinate an elected leader (and indeed overthrew
him several years ago, but were checkmated by his superior planning).
Financial
advisors who obey their fiduciary duty should be advising investors to
move investments out of this most unstable of nations, not printing
what amounts to Administration propaganda.
Over the past few years
this anxious opposition has made several attempts to get rid of Chávez,
with the tacit encouragement of Washington. They organised a coup in
April 2002 that rebounded against them two days later when the
kidnapped Chávez was returned to power by an alliance of the army and
the people. They tried an economic coup by closing down the oil
refineries, and this too was a failure. Last year's recall-referendum,
designed to lead to a defeat for Chávez, was an overwhelming victory
for him.
To follow on to Scott Peck's People of the Lie,
one of the current memes in the business press is that oil prices are
high because there market speculation over 
