Nosce te ipsum

So the week before MacWorld has always been quote funny to stand on the outside and watch and over the years, you start to see a certain consistency to the rumors about what Steve Jobs will be announcing at MacWorld. In addition to the rumors, you always start to read some really stupid or at least very obvious writings in the press. Here's a few nuggets from today's newswire.

JP Morgan raises Apple estimates January 4 - 14:01 EST   JP Morgan has raised its estimates for Apple, citing robust sales of Macs and iPods through December. Analyst Bill Shope said in a research note that the "key catalyst" for the increase was "improved availability of 1-inch drives for the iPod mini." The firm expects earnings per share of 49 cents for the December quarter, up from its previous estimate of 47 cents. JP Morgan also raised fiscal 2005 forecasts, now predicting EPS of $1.71, up from $1.69.

....and the very next story in the que....

AAPL could see 'violent sell off' if expectations aren't met January 3 - 16:32 EST   Katie Benner of CNN/Money fears that Apple's golden stock could go the opposite direction in an instant if the company can't live up to expectations. "If you're a long-term investor, it's hard to find any worms in the Apple story," Benner writes. "But investors should realize that the stock could be volatile in the near-term. Expectations for hot new products coming out of Macworld and strong earnings are so high that the slightest disappointment could trigger a violent sell off."

...wait, so you're saying that if Apple's stock doesn't meet it's expectations that people might actually sell the stock! Wow, I guess Apple's stock isn't very innovative because that's exactly what happens to every other public company on the planet! Stock performs poorly, investors sell it, it does well, they buy it. I guess Katie Benner of CNN/Money did not see JP Morgan's announcement from this morning. I just feel bad for the folks who actually listen to people like this for their financial advice. Come on, just a little common sense here people.

My favorite one from today's headlines has to go to....

Napster, Yahoo say iTunes is doomed January 3, 2005 - 18:24 EST   Apple rivals say the iTunes Music Store's 99-cent pricing is the wrong formula for digital music, and that subscription-based models are the future. With the top-of-the-line iPod, "You can fit 10,000 songs on it," Napster CEO Chris Gorog says. But "to do that would cost you $10,000 if you bought the songs from Apple. With our plan, customers can get 10,000 songs on their device for $180 a year. It's an enormous value."

... Maybe it's just because I'm getting older and hopefully a little wiser (or do they that cynical these days) but I have so little patience for this empty corporate babble these days. I don't know about you but when I watched Steve Jobs's keynote address introducing the iTunes Music Store to the world, where you could finally do what do many of us have always wanted to do - buy just what we are interested in, not be forced to buy a full album with only a few songs that we actually care about. It's was like a light-bulb went off and they actually thought about building something with the consumers interests in mind, not just as an after thought. (Oh, I almost forgot, this is Apple, that do that pretty frequently). But when the inevitable copycat stores soon started showing up, I was quite surprised that several of them really focused on the subscription model.

Now I fully accept that everyone is different and there are some people out there to whom it might make sense to 'rent' their music - but I am definitely not that market and to this day, I seldomly actually meet anyone who prefers renting their music to owning it, it just doesn't make sense. I agreed with Steve when he made the statement that you 'rent and apartment, but you buy music' -- Music is so central to our lives, so important for so many reasons and to think that you don't get to keep that with you forever (well of course you can, just so long as you keep paying their subscription fees!). There comes a point in everyone's life where you figure out that paying for something that you don't get to keep is just plain stupid (like renting vs owning you own home). Sure, many of us have done it - but hopefully we smarten up a little.

I realize these Napster execs are talking to their own best interests when they make boastful claims about how it would cost you $10,000 to pay for enough music to fill up an iPod - which is a great soundbyte but they conveniently forget that all music fans (the kind of people who would buy their product) already have music collections on tape / cd / album, etc that have taken lifetimes to accumulate and part of the draw of the iPod is being able to take everything with you wherever you go so right of the bat, they've already got a big jump on building their collections digitally. My favorite quote from this after is by far:

A Yahoo executive also said subscription is the way to go. "Selling 99-cent singles isn't working as a business model for us or for consumers," says Dave Goldberg, who runs Yahoo's music division, which includes Musicmatch. "We sell hundreds of downloads," Goldberg says. "But we don't make money on them. Subscriptions is a much better business for us."

..and I think he nailed it on the head, it's not a good business model for them --- but to say it's not good for customers is just a joke. Have they actually bothered tried talking to real live paying customers about what they would prefer? Ironically, even the current leader, the Apple iTunes Music Store which has now sold something like 200 million songs, they also say that they don't make any significant money from selling music, their money obviously comes from selling iPods. To be fair, over the weekend, I tried using both Napster, and MSN's online music store and to be honest, if you had never used an iPod or iTunes before, it might be good enough for you but both of them just really struck me as a very bland user experience. Using ITMS is a fun experience, bar none and these two - well, not so much!