Deloitte's Trends of 2005. 
Deloitte Research have been joining the trend-spotting/prediction
game, with their top 12 for 2005. Since 8 deal directly with mobile
phones, the main conclusion seems to be that this will be the year of
the mobile.
Here's what they say about mobile stuff:
# Electronic viruses will run rampant in PCs, cellphones, PDAs
and gaming consoles. Nuisances such as unsolicited e-mail (spam),
unsolicited instant messages (spim) and attacks on Bluetooth-enabled
devices (bluejacking) will become common. These will cost businesses
billions of dollars in lost data and downtime. However, it will also
offer opportunities for companies that sell IT security solutions.
While I certainly think that mobile viruses are a huge opportunity
to sell security solutions, I also think that the actual threat is
negligible for most phone owners, unless exceptionally stupid and
unfeasibly unlucky in the first place.
If you look under the bonnet of all the mobile virus stories to
date, there's no real substance. This may change obviously, but I think
we're pretty safe this year.
The Bluejacking thing is showing no sign of slowing down at all.
Just because it's not in the press all the time, doesn't mean it's not
happening.
I also predict we'll see more idiots trying Bluespamming this year
(commercial messaging via Bluetooth) before they realise that spamming
people who are near enough to hit you, don't make sense.
# Music downloads will become respectable with the growing
quality of online stores, rise in digital music players, the inclusion
of CD burners as standard features in PCs, and the exceptional quality
of legal downloads.
While legitimate, paid for downloading has surely always been
"respectable", it doesn't mean that the free stuff will go away. It's
just too tempting for most cash strapped teens to download and the risk
of copping a legal suit is so remote.
While the music industry is furiously congratulating each other on
their sagacity of finally accepting digital downloading, the rest of us
can't help but smirk as they're 4 years too late to really benefit from
the party.
This is an industry that alternates between the anger and denial stages of loss.
# Ads will be embedded with text hyperlinks, software toolbar
buttons, video games, software (particularly freeware), web browsers
and even on mobile phone screens. These ads will be precisely targeted,
updated via Internet connections based on time of day and user
activity, and will be far more subtle and sophisticated and less
intrusive.
There's a big difference between "should" and "will". Most
advertisers are still wedded to the in-yer-face disruptive model and
that's not going to change soon. Another industry in denial.
# Simplicity will be the key to selling content on cellphones.
Faster networks, better processors and brighter screens will make
content over cellphones more appealing. 'But many experiments will
fail, due to a lack of understanding of the way mobile phones are used,
the social context of mobile usage, and the limitations of the mobile
device,' the study notes. What will sell is simplicity - small,
relevant packages of content that customise the device such as
ringtones, screensavers and wallpapers. All this will contribute to a
multi-billion dollar industry.
Yes, finally one I can agree with wholeheartedly. I'd go further
though and say micro-segmentation of content is also key. Why oh why
does all wallpaper get merchandised together? People don't buy
wallpaper, they buy (for instance) Busted Wallpaper and a Busted
Ringtone. So why not put this together?
And if I buy an Eminem ringtone, it's pretty unlikely that I'm going
to buy a Britney ringtone, but I might buy an Eminem call back tune. So
why not put the product in danger of being sold by better thought
through merchandising?
# Small talk by billions will add up to big revenue as there will
be nearly two billion mobile subscriptions worldwide by end-2005.
Subscriber growth will be strongest in developing countries (including
Asia and Latin America) where mobile phones are both a transformational
technology and a status symbol.
Pretty much what I said in my predictions.
# Voice will be the primary source of revenue and profits in
cellphones and will account for more than 80 per cent of total revenue.
Cellphone penetration will surpass 100 per cent as more customers take
a second subscription for data or for personal use. The most compelling
and lucrative mobile content will revolve around personalisation, such
as ringtones, real tones, wallpapers and basic games.
# The vast majority of voice calls will continue to originate and
terminate the traditional way, on the public switched telephone network
(PSTN), due to superior call quality and overall reliability. PSTN
operators will cut prices in response to competition from low cost
providers (mobile and VoIP), causing margin pressure.
# VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) will see both call volume
and the user base increase significantly among consumers and
businesses. Its adoption and growth will be limited by shortfalls in
VoIP's quality, consistency and reliability and the resulting slightly
negative image in the marketplace. And for enterprises, cost savings
will often be less than anticipated.
So, all in all, not a bad effort for a bunch of professionals :-)
Source: Asia One via Moco News [The Mobile Technology Weblog]
2:20:46 PM 
|
It[base ']s a tough decision - throw rocks at one
another, have a conversation, get a drink, or get cozy around your cellphone for a round of Jumbo Rumble. Jumbo
Rumble is Digital Chocolate[base ']s new multi-player cellphone game that wants you and your friends to game together on a
1.8-inch screen, sharing a little keypad. Imagine the fun and joy as you bump heads whilst your little elephants
float into space! If you[base ']re not into elephants, you can also play Sumo Smash, which is the same game, except Sumo
wrestlers take the place of the elephants. Because they[base ']re different.
Here's
the first good look at the black Motorola V3 Razr phones that will be
handed out to Oscar winners at this year's show. I'm not sure I like it
better than the silver model, but it's sure to be a big hit[~]if they actually release it.
