Sunday, September 29, 2002

Dynamic systems are systems that generally don't behave in ways that we might consider "intuitive". When people are confronted with dynamic, non-linear systems, they will often attempt to interact with them as if they were simple, linear systems. The outcome will generally be unpredictable. One example of a dynamic system is the stock market. It moves this way and that, but rarely behaves as we might expect it to.

Another dynamic system is the global climate. Linear thinking would have us believe that the continuous pressure on the atmosphere, resulting from CO2 emissions will cause a continuous and gradual increase in global temperature. This type of thinking is simply wrong in light of the fact that the global climate is not a linear system.

Dr. Robert B. Gagosian, President and Director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, points out how the climate has rapidly changed over and over again in the past and will likely do so again in the future [here].

Global warming could actually lead to a big chill in some parts of the world. If the atmosphere continues to warm, it could soon trigger a dramatic and abrupt cooling throughout the North Atlantic region—where, not incidentally, some 60 percent of the world’s economy is based.

This is very counter-intuitive, but then so are dynamic systems. Unfortunately, until people begin to understand that the climate is non-linear, they will continue to try and combat changes in the environment through linear remedies. They will also continue to pressure legislation that supports this inaccurate worldview.
2:59:37 PM