Updated: 3/1/2003; 10:28:06 PM.
Un Film Snob Pour Martiens
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Friday, February 07, 2003

Earlier this week, I wrote about our class in Managerial Behavior that left me stunned.  We had seen the film "12 Angry Men" (the 1957 original, not the remake), and our topic that day was to discuss the organizational issues portrayed in the film.

Professor Michael Brimm led us through the film, scene by scene, to illustrate what kinds of actions have corresponding effects in a group setting.  Gestures as small as looking at someone when they speak, engaging someone in conversation or not, and the subtle ways in which questions are framed; these all have specific consequences in group settings.  I have four pages of small-print notes from the class.

About one-third of the way through the class, we came upon the question of when Henry Fonda's character (Davis, the architect) pulls a bone-handled switchblade out of his pocket and throws it into the table.  Was it before the first secret vote, or after?  Our professor asked a few people, and they all thought it happened after.  He took a show-of-hands poll, and over ninety percent agreed (70+ out of 78).

He asked one man who disagreed to explain why; the response was not exactly rock solid... "I'm pretty sure it was before... I seem to remember that it was before."  Another show of hands, and now 95% of the class agreed that it happened after the first secret vote.

Professor Brimm said, "You know, I've seen this film quite a number of times, and I seem to remember that it happened before as well.  Does anyone want to change their vote?"

No takers. 

"Now, you all know that I give the grades in this class... [students laugh]  Anyone want to change their vote now?"

No takers.

"What if I told you that I had the movie here?  Would that change anyone's mind?"

"Show it to us!" was the response.  Translation: we don't believe you.

"Let me ask just one more question on this topic.  Write down somewhere if you think the knife was shown before or after the vote."  Everyone wrote down there answers; I, in a tiny minority, wrote down 'before'.  "Now write down how sure you are."

"How many of you are 100% sure?"  Many people raised their hands.

"OK then!  Now, I just happen to have the film right here, set just at that scene... let's dim the lights."

The lights were duly dimmed, and the film started to play, exactly at that scene.  A few moments later, just before the vote is taken, we see the architect's bone-handled knife stuck into the table, just inches from the similar-looking murder weapone.  The amphi realized that a humiliatiing climbdown was now required.

Why was this such an incredible experience?  Was it because the whole point of studying the film is to see how people make up their minds, and how they change them?  Because the film explores how unreliable memories are?  Because the film explicitly illustrates how quickly groupthink happens, without anyone realizing it?  Because the room was full of cocksure MBAs, who could not possibly be wrong?  Because those same MBAs, just a few days before, had been show how unreliable their confidence levels are from the Applied Statistics class?

The entire class had been played like a fine Stradavarius, exactly as the professor knew we would be.  Had we collectively had one iota of sense, we would have seen all the signs; that was the whole point of the movie.  And yet we missed them all.  Seventy-odd people could not admit that they didn't know or weren't sure; the hubris on display...

I am still amazed at how incredibly easy it was to fool us; that we should have known better and had even been warned, but we couldn't be bothered.  We were collectively blind and stubborn, and worst of all, I fear that we would do it again, just the same way.


3:04:27 PM    comment []

I must be extremely tired, because I was laughing my head off during Applied Statistics class this morning.  Either that or Jack was particularly funny; without further adieu let's review Today's Jack Soll Quotes:

[At the beginning of class (8:30am), we reviewed the last set of estimates made by our class at the beginning of the term.  We had to predict the weight distribution of the males in the incoming class, and their salary distribution three years hence.  After reviewing the data, Jack asked if anyone had any additional comments.]  "I'm trying to delay getting back to hypothesis testing because it is one of the most boring topics in statistics."

[Now proceeding to one of our hypo testing problems.]  "This example is about bottle-filling.  It's a boring topic, so I try to make the examples as boring as possible."

"So this Insead student gets a job at L'Oréal, and her job is to watch this machine to see if it is overfilling the bottles."  For some reason, I found this just hysterical.  So did the woman behind me, who asked sotto voce, "Is she a monkey?" referring to umpteen previous hypos about whether a stock picker is talented or just a monkey who got lucky.

[The same woman behind me starts to solve a case for the class.  Jack stops her and asks for some details.]

Woman: "I don't have any details!  They weren't in the case, I think there are some pages missing."

Jack: "Yes, there were, we sent an email out yesterday... It's very ambitious of you to try to solve the case with only half the information."  [Uproarious laughter in the amphi.]

 


2:17:54 PM    comment []

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