Thursday, July 08, 2004

GETTING UP TO SPEED: THE US SENATE RACE IN FLORIDA One thing I will be writing a fair bit about in the next few months is the US Senate race in Florida. For this reason, I offer the following overview. Florida's seats in the Senate are currently occupied by Democrats Bob Graham and Bill Nelson. The last Republican to hold one of the seats was Connie Mack, who defeated Buddy Mckay by less than 1% in 1988. He then won reelection in 1994 by beating Hugh Rodham (yes, the brother of you know who,) by a large margin. He retired in 2000 and his seat was filled by Bill Nelson who defeated US Representative Bill McCollum by five points. Bob Graham followed his two terms as governor of Florida with a seat in the Senate by defeating incumbent Paula Hawkins by twelve points in 1986. His seat was nearly a lock for the Democrats as long as he was in office as he defeated his subsequent opponents by large margins. In 2003 several Republicans prepared to contend for the seat regardless of whether Graham retired while a few Democrats were in wait and see mode. Graham ended the suspense in November and his announcement triggered a flurry of activity. The race for the Republican nomination has been quite lively. Among those preparing for a Senate run in 2003 were the aforementioned Bill McCollum, outgoing State House speaker Johnnie Byrd, former State House speaker Daniel Webster, and Judicial Watch founder Larry Klayman. A presumed front-runner, Representative Mark Foley dropped out of the race due to his parents' poor health. This left the field without a dominant candidate and sparked rumors that Katherine Harris would enter the race. In December Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez resigned from his position and entered the race in the beginning of January and Harris announced that she would not run for Senate this cycle. In February, Doug Gallagher, (brother of Florida's Chief Financial Officer and possible successor to Jeb Bush, Tom Gallagher), entered the race. Daniel Webster found himself unable to get his voice out above the fray and left the race in May, which set the field as follows: Mel Martinez is assumed to be the front-runner due to his ties to the Bush administration and his ability to pull in the Cuban vote. His opponents often criticize him for being a trial lawyer. He has been endorsed by Senators George Allen and Rick Santorum, and Representatives Foley and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Bill McCollum is considered to be Martinez's chief opponent. While some consider his failed campaign of 2000 to be a hit against him, it helps with his name recognition nonetheless. He has been endorsed by Connie Mack, Senators Mike Dewine, John Sununu and Larry Craig, and Representatives Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart. Johnnie Byrd is the favored underdog. While I haven't seen much public criticism of him, I have had heard that some insiders dislike him for things that occurred in the Legislature during his tenure as Speaker. He has been endorsed by the Club For Growth and many state representatives. Doug Gallagher isn't really a favored contender, but the money he has spent has helped him become known. His television ad has been widely played and was immediately criticized by the Martinez campaign, which interpreted as being anti-Bush (I found it to be a typical ad for an outsider, which attacked career do-nothing politicians, and did not see what the Martinez campaign saw). The field is rounded out by Larry Klayman, Sonya March, and Karen Saull. The leader of the Democratic field is Betty Castor, whose internet presence is run by a former worker for Howard Dean. She was most recently President of the University of South Florida, and has been criticized for her handling of Sami Al-Arian, who was a professor at USF who has been indicted for having ties to the terrorist group Islamic Jihad. Her opponents are Representative Peter Deutsch and Miami mayor Alex Penelas. There haven't been any major state-wide polls released since the spring. The polls then showed that any of the major Republican candidates would have a slight edge on Betty Castor. Johnnie Byrd's campaign has promoted recent polls that show him having a slight edge on his Republican opponents in Duval County (Jacksonville), and Fort Myers. McCollum's campaign has touted a poll showing him up fourteen points on Martinez. The one thing that those polls have in common is that they both show that more than half of voters are undecided at the moment. We will probably see some polling when definitive fund-raising numbers for the second quarter come out in a few days and I will cover all of that news as it is released. Florida Senate Campaign, Politics comment []11:18:31 PM   trackback []