Saturday, July 24, 2004

McCollum v Martinez over Cuban issues Well, I was wrong in stating that the poll was the only news published about the Senate race today. That was true for the English speaking media. However,on the front page of El Nuevo Herald, Miami's Spanish language newspaper, there is an article about an uproar over a pamphlet distributed by the McCollum campaign to 50,000 Hispanics in Miami - Dade county. The pamphlet says that McCollum's record with regards to Cuba is "more solid with proven examples". The most contentious phrase is If you study my record and that of the other candidates in this contest, you will see that my obligation to this cause is with all my heart and that in my record over time on the subject, there has never existed confusion or thought of backing down. Melissa Shuffield, A spokesperson for the Martinez camaign replies Mel knows what Communism is, Mel lived in Cuba long enough to know what Communism is and since he left Cuba, he has been dedicated to fighting the regime of Fidel Catro. Maria Pia Tamburri, a Presidential spokesperson said Secretary Martinez served with distinction in the President's cabinent, and being the first Cuban-American to serve in that capacity, was a strong voice in the desires of the President to take the steps necessary to confront the Cuban regime. She clarified that "Bush is 'absolutely neutral' in the Republican Senate race" The Martinez spokesperson lamented that McCollum was doing a dirty campaign despite that before the race began, Republican candidates mutually promised to not attack each other. "It was the eleventh commandment of Ronald Reagan that Republicans do not attack each other". The pamphlet contains statements from Congressmen Lincoln and Mario-Diaz Balart, which testify to McCollum's support to the anti-Castro cause. Their father was majority leader in Cuba's House of Representatives before fleeing the island. Al rojo vivo la pugna entre Mel y McCollum (El Nuevo Herald) (The red hot battle between Mel and McCollum) All blockquotes are my translations of the article (title translation is my own as well. Google's translation is more literal: To red alive between Mel and Mcollum.) The translation of the body of the article is a little better, and one can get a reasonable gist of its contents. Un tip del sombrero a Estoria e Reportagem. Florida Senate Campaign, Politics comment []2:16:12 PM   trackback []

Senate Campaign News 20040724 All of the press coverage pertaining to the race is about the Mason-Dixon poll released yesterday. On the Republican side, Bill McCollum leads with 29%, Mel Martinez is second at 24%, Johnnie Byrd third at 7%, and Doug Gallagher in fourth at 5%. Beating them all is Undecided at 30%. On the Democrat side, Betty Castor has a healthy lead. She is at 37%, Peter Deutsch follows at 21%, and Alex Penelas brings up the rear with 10%. 32% of Democrat voters are undecided. In head to head matchups, Castor beat McCollum 44% to 39%, and tied with Martinez at 39%. Deutsch edges McCollum 38-36 and trails Martinez 39-41. Penelas loses to McCollum 36-38 and to Martinez 32-40. The polls for the party nomination were done with pools of approximately 375 people and have margins of error of five perecent. The head-head matchups were done with a pool of approximately six hundred people and have a margin of error of four percent. The news reports conflict somewhat on who was surveyed. Most describe them as "likely voters". The News-Press says they were "registered voters who said they vote often" and the Tallahassee Democrat just says "registered voters". One of the mysteries of the poll is why Gallagher came in so low. The Tampa Tribune quotes a Gallagher consultant, Richard Pinsky saying``I've got a hard time believing we are only at 5". He came in six points lower than the poll published by Sayflie review on Thursday and ten points lower than the poll his campiagn put out last week. Both polls agreed with yesterday's poll in what the margin is between McCollum and Martinez. If the poll truly was of likely voters, then maybe this shows that Gallagher is the choice of someone who doesn't vote in primaries often (his ads have been geared that way, somewhat). Note that I have still not been able to find the poll touted by the Gallagher campaign on the front page of his website that has him at 16%. Some of the polls speculate on the meaning of the head-head matchups, most notably the Orlando Sentinel, who had this as their second paragraph But the survey, conducted for the Orlando Sentinel and WESH-NewsChannel 2, also suggests some ominous national overtones for Republicans, if McCollum emerges from the Aug. 31 primary as the nominee. It shows McCollum trailing Castor and statistically deadlocked with Democrats Peter Deutsch and Alex Penelas, if either of those candidates becomes their party's nominee. It would be interesting to know if the pollsters identified the candidate's party when they asked the head-head question. The last Mason-Dixon Poll, done in April, had Castor leading McCollum by two points and Martinez by three (margin of error was four points). So, it is possible that nothing has changed since April in that regard. Also, it is hard to put much weight on a poll that has so many undecided and on a race that the average voter has not heard much about. Castor, McCollum lead Senate races (News-Press) Poll: McCollum leads GOP pack (Tallahassee Democrat) Few focused on Senate race (Tampa Tribune) US Senate race tightens up (Orlando Sentinel, registration required) Tough test by GOP awaiting Castor (Miami Herald, registration required) LATER: From WESH, a TV station in Orlando. Poll: Senate Race Still Up For Grabs All of the candidates have a lot of work to do over the next five weeks to boost their name recognition among voters. About a third of those polled do not recognize Martinez or Castor, and about one in five don't recognize McCollum. More than 40 percent do not recognize Deutsch or Penelas, and least 70 percent said they did not recognize the names of candidates Klayman, Klein, Saull, March and Kogut. So 20% have apparently forgotten that McCollum ran for Senate in 2000. Not too surprising that 30% don't recognize Castor or Martinez. I assume that these numbers were asked from the pool of 600 voters. It would be interesting to know what the name recognition numbers were by party. After all, it wouldn't be too surprising or noteworthy for the average Republican to not know who Castor is, same for a Democrat to not know Martinez. However, if 30% of Democrats don't know who Castor is and a similar number of Republicans don't know who Martinez is, then they have a bit of work to do before August 31. EVEN LATER:  Mason-Dixon Florida Poll July19-21 2004 (PDF file) (Almost) All of my questions answered! First, the poll done for head-head matchups was of registered voters.  The poll for the primaries was of likely voters. On name recognition:  Among Democrats polled, Castor had the highest name recognition at 73%.  Deutsch followed at 63%, and Penleas trailed at  61%.  While Castor and Deutsch had good favorable/unfavorable ratings, Penelas' favorable was 18%, and his unfavorable was 15%.  On the Republican side (among Republicans polled), McCollum was the most recognized at 82%.  Still, this means that almost one out five of likely Republican voters forgot that he ran for Senate in 2000 (of course that could be a good thing for him).  Martinez was next at 69%, Gallagher followed at 65% and Byrd lagged at 56% (despite being Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives for the past two years).  All had good favorable/unfavorable ratios among Republicans Finally, when the head-head question was asked, the parties of the candidates were given.  Because of this, I think that the results are more because of generic preference than an actual preference for the candidiates. (Consider that about 80% chose a candidate, while 30% don't recognize  Castor or Martinez.  That means that at least 5% picked a candidate blindly).  Florida Senate Campaign, Politics comment []12:57:13 PM   trackback []