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Daily Permalink Wednesday, January 01, 2003

More thought on "what should I do with my life?" This time from Fast Company magazine. Good stuff. You make yourself happy with what you have. Wanting more stuff doesn't bring you happiness. What's the perfect job, anyway? I know that I sure don't want to be an elevator operator sitting in a elevator pushing one of four buttons all my life. I wanna be involved in the game. That's what's fun. Standing in Times Square with your best friend is infinitely more fun than watching it on TV.

What makes me passionate? Technology. Technology continues to change our lives faster than any other industry. When I rode the subway, what was I observing? I noticed that a large number of people had cell phones or Palm Pilots/PocketPC kinds of things. I could imagine the day, coming soon, where 802.11 would be in every Subway station and millions of people were using Tablets and portable computers to communicate with each other.

Oh, another observation? One of the people we stayed with got taken by the famous three-card-monte. She felt really stupid. They played on her psychology. She's studying to be a doctor and is pretty smart (a lot smarter than I am). Proves that anyone can be taken by an occassional scam. But, what if she had a portable computer hooked to Google? She may have discovered this article which shows why you can't win.

See, information +is+ power. Here, she didn't have the right information to be able to walk away. But, if she did, she would have made the right choice. It's my dream to see the day when every human has access to information that would improve their lives. We're not even close to getting there. Just ask the average Chinese or Iraqi citizen if they have the skills, equipment, and permission to search Google.

So far I've avoided discussing the war here because I didn't have an opinion on what to do. I really don't, but I see that the war is gonna drag down the economy, and since I'm a "jobblogger" (as opposed to a "warblogger") I am interested in anything that'll keep companies from hiring. Right now uncertainty over the future is keeping companies from hiring. That uncertainty is coming from the war effort. It's interesting, Bush Sr. got into a war that was sold pretty well to the American people and got the job done fast and came out immensely popular (he lost, mostly cause he was perceived to have ignored the economy). Bush Jr. seems to be setting himself up for a different scenario. He's getting us into a war that hasn't been well sold to the American people and by doing so he's ignoring the concerns of the economy at home. I just don't see much good coming out of this. I'm already bracing myself for the images of burned Iraqi children and body bags of Americans coming home. After all, Bush must realize that any war with Iraq will only end up with Saddam's head on a pike. You can't get his head on a pike without sending in troops. When you put troops on the ground, you'll have casualties. This is not gonna be a clean TV war like last time.

Oh, and think you can control the media this time around? Yeah, right. Digital cameras cost only $200 now and can send images around the world in seconds. This won't be a war you only see on CNN.

I keep wondering to myself what I'd do if I were President right now. It looks like Bush is heading us toward war with Iraq. I don't think he's made a clear case of "why." Not that I don't want to go after Saddam, but I don't see that he's done anything all that wrong. Hey, the North Koreans can lie to our faces and get away with it. After all, they have at least two nuclear weapons. I guess now we can see why other countries like Iran are trying very hard to join the nuclear owners' club. Have nukes and America turns into cowards. Don't have nukes and Americans rattle their sabers and come running. Oh, I forgot one other detail too: Iraq has oil and Korea doesn't. Am I missing something here? I'm not a pacifist. If there's a reason to go to war, I'll support it, but I'm not sold yet. I don't think many Americans are and that'll be Bush's achilles heel as he tries to get reelected, particularly if the war turns messy (and wars always are).

Mary Jo Foley, among other things, thinks the Tablet PC will remain a curiosity item rather than must-have machines. On the other hand, Dan Gillmor thinks they could be a suprise hit of the year. I wonder who's right?

Thanks to TabletPCTalk.com for the links.

Aaron Swartz is asking "what should I do with my life?" Now, to really understand the question, you need to understand that Aaron is young. He's still of the age that most people would be attending to high school. I was very fortunate to meet Aaron a couple times this past year. To say he's bright would be an understatement.

He obviously has a few gifts that most of the rest of us aren't blessed with (mainly intelligence and youth).

So, in that spirit, here's my answer: Aaron, soak up as much knowledge as you can in the next 12 years. Don't see that you need to give anything back until you're 30. I think you'll do that naturally anyway. Instead, become a master at something that society will need in 2015. Software might be it. I doubt we'll need more 802.11 experts in 2015, though.

I personally wouldn't worry too much about it. Life happens. The people I respect are those who build things that other people value. People like an actor on a broadway play, or the guy who designs the signs in Times Square (or, more likely, writes the software that runs them) or a guy who builds a cool scooter for us all to use.

The thing is, you've been given a great gift. Don't squander it on drugs. One of my best friends in high school (who was also brighter than I was) did that and it pains me to this day. Oh, and don't get a stop light named after you (a bandmate of mine in high school, Lisa Forester, had such a light built after she died in the crosswalk in front of our school). Not to mention, it's amazingly difficult to find information on this accident on Google. The only thing I found was this letter to the editor, but it contains a couple of things that were wrong. First, Lisa wasn't dragged a couple of blocks (I saw the aftermath, she was dragged a few hundred feet). Second, she was in my class (1983) so couldn't have been attending Prospect in 1978. I believe the accident happened in 1981. Anyway, she was a wonderful person and it still makes me sad everytime I see that stop light.

The point is, Aaron, that you're young, and have great gifts. If I were in your position, I'd learn to master something really hard. Something most people aren't willing (or are unable) to take on. You have 12 years to prepare. Go to it!

MacWorld predictions for Apple fans. From what I know, many of these predictions will come true. My spies tell me to look for new desktop machines coming in June with hot new processors. Thanks to Dori Smith for the link.

Good afternoon Instapundit fans!

Well, it only took 15 minutes of walking around New York before I heard the famous New York greeting: "fauk yew!" Actually, I heard it a lot less this trip than in previous years. Maybe New Yorkers are getting nicer. Maybe they realize that Osama fauked them good and so they can't rightfully fauk anyone else, at least for the moment.

So many great New York memories are flowing back. Eating Motso balls, pastrami sandwiches, and chopped liver with Dave at the Second Ave. Deli was yummy. So was seeing my first Broadway Play (Dance of the Vampires -- Michael Crawford has a penetrating voice). And taking my first walk in Central Park (glittering white with snow too!)

Partying on New Years Eve in Times Square (we were half a block away at the China Club, watching it on TV just like you were -- except we were in a horny hoarde dancing and screaming) was awesome.

The Guggenheim was great. Our favorite was the Mapplethorpe exhibit. If you've been there, you know what black and beautiful is all about.

We were staying with friends of Maryam's at Columbia University in the dorms there. Quite a different experience from the last time I was in New York where I stayed in one of the Presidential Suites at the Marriott Marquis.

The weather was unbelieveable. While it was rainy and stormy back in Silicon Valley, New York was a ballmy 45 most of the time we were there.

One of the things that I love about New York is the sense that you could have your scull beaten in at any moment, or you could end up at Grand Central Station sitting next to a research economist for the Federal Reserve Bank. I wish I got the gentleman's name, but we chatted for a while over $12 shots of Glennfiditch whiskey. He says that the economy will be flat until the war with Iraq plays out "investors don't like uncertainty." He also says that technology is actually one of the bright spots in the economy "what about all the people laid off in Silicon Valley?" I asked. "That's last year's news," he said, while explaining that the tech industry is growing faster right now than most sectors. Since he worked for Alan Greenspan, I asked what we should expect about interest rates. He says they aren't going up or down unless something unexpected happens and that they are amazingly low right now. He said they could lower rates a few more times, but would only do so at this point if something really bad happened.

Anyway, I'm glad to be back home. Hope your New Year turned out good too. If not, you can always go to the Second Ave. Deli and eat some chopped liver.


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Robert Scoble works at Microsoft. Everything here, though, is his personal opinion and is not read or approved before it is posted. No warranties or other guarantees will be offered as to the quality of the opinions or anything else offered here.

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© Copyright 2004 Robert Scoble robertscoble@hotmail.com. Last updated: 1/3/2004; 1:57:31 AM.