Scobleizer Weblog

Daily Permalink Sunday, January 19, 2003

Speaking of Woz -- who the person most responsible for my involvement in the technology industry -- here's a very interesting interview with him on Slashdot.

For those that don't know, my fist celebrity interview was with Woz in the late 1980s. I subsequently asked him for some computers for our journalism department at West Valley College and he gave me $40,000 worth of Macs. Far beyond my biggest dreams and that donation impelled me to learn far more about the Mac than I ever would have on my own. I'll forever be in his debt.

I remember starting out the conversation hoping that he'd give us another Mac Plus to use. He got really excited and said we needed Mac II's and big screens and scanners and stuff. This was back when RAM was $450 a megabyte and our school had no hope of buying that for a small journalism department.

Oh, one other thing: I notice that Slashdot's community is anti everyone and everything. Does that really help the human race evolve?

Robert Cringley's mouthing off again about what Microsoft should do with Windows (this time he says to put Linux underneath). Oh, why?

Aren't there far more interesting things for Microsoft to do? What, you say? Well, when I was at the Monterey Bay Aquarium yesterday I noticed TONS of digital cameras. Clearly digital cameras have gone mainstream. Not a single one is running Microsoft software. Why would Microsoft replace something that's already working and that people already have? If you're Gates you need to figure out how to grow Microsoft. How do you do that? You target areas where Microsoft IS NOT yet a known entity. Hey, can we say "digital cameras"? How about "personal video recorders?" How about "cell phones?" Or, what about "watches?" Heh.

The real problem Microsoft has isn't with its technology (my XP hasn't crashed in months) but with its market positioning. It clearly has the worst PR of any company anywhere (unless you consider WorldCom or Enron).

I'm thinking a lot about what Microsoft could do, since I'm going to soon hear from Gates, Allchin, and Balmer (the three most important people at Microsoft) since I've been invited up to the MVP summit on Feb. 9.

What am I gonna ask Gates? Easy: "Mr. Gates, why don't you split Microsoft up?"

Here's my justification: Microsoft is doing too much. PDAs. Desktops. Laptops. Keyboards. Games. Mice. Watches. Servers. Tablets. etc.

It's Marketing 101 that if you want to be noticed you need to focus. Look at how Krispy Kreme or In-N-Out have grown while others have stagnated.

The problem is, Microsoft can't get any traction in the marketplace. Look at the Tablet. Look at the Xbox. Both are superior technologies. Both are having troubles getting off of the ground (don't believe me, ask an "normal human" what he knows about Microsoft's Tablet initiative or look at Xbox's sales -- clearly they haven't hit home runs yet).

Why can't they get traction? Because the same PR people who are pitching reporters on stories about the Tablet are also pitching them on .NET or Windows Media Center or Watches or...

Media will only give Microsoft so much coverage. Even me (I'm clearly a friend of Microsoft) can only talk about Microsoft so much before I get heck from my friends for talking about Microsoft too much (I imagine I'll get a few emails just about this post).

So, now, imagine a world where Microsoft splits up into six different companies with different names and different PR and marketing and sales and stuff. Who will all the Silicon Valley types hate? There'll be too many companies to focus hate on. And, reporters will have six new companies to cover, each with its own agenda, its own executives, it's own PR company, and its own marketing staff.

Plus, you'll see innovation unleashed at these six companies in a torrent we've never seen before. Why? Because they'll want to be noticed (and since they'll be given tons of cash and a new PR firm that's hungry for coverage, they will be).

See, this is why I'm disappointed that Microsoft is giving its investors a dividend. It tells me "the age of innovation at Microsoft is dead and we can't figure out anything interesting to do with your cash, so we might as well give it back to you so you can find something more interesting to do with it."

Come on! There are millions of people with digital cameras (and millions more to come). You tell me that every app that can be done for them has already been done and that it isn't worth spending a billion dollars to start a new company to try to do interesting things for digital camera users?

You telling me that you've completely investigated the weblog idea and decided that there's no way to make money on it? Heck, look at the innvoation that's happened with just a few million invested in the ENTIRE FIELD!

You telling me that there's no way to add any features onto instant messengers so that you'll gain millions of customers over your competitors?

You telling me that the Tablet is an idea that's finished and that there's no way another billion invested there won't be worth it?

Oh, yeah, Microsoft, you've taken over the cellular telephone industry, right? That isn't worth splitting off into its own company, right?

Hey, and aren't those folks at Tivo onto something?

Nah, Microsoft is done with innovation and has decided to give its investors their money back. Oh well. I guess Microsoft has officially now become IBM.

The question is "who's the new Microsoft?"

The game is about to start all over again. I guess we're fortunate that Gates is giving us our money back so we can invest in a new company that'll come along.

Oh, what's Steve Wozniak working on again? I don't know, but I do know that Silicon Valley has been through this boom/bust cycle before and that at the end of every bust a bunch of new companies get born. Apple was born in the late 70s (anyone remember the economic disaster of Jimmy Carter?) Netscape was born in the early 90s (anyone remember the recession of the late 80s and early 90s?). So, who's next? After all, Microsoft's investors have their money back now and are looking for someplace else to put it.

What is a Fotolog?

Speaking of .NET, I've been most impressed by INETA (International .NET Association), a group of .NET User's Groups. They've been bringing world-class speakers to the local Silicon Valley .NET user group (folks that you usually have to pay $1000 to hear). This group started without real support from Microsoft, although now Microsoft is supporting them. Here's a GotDotNet article about INETA. (GotDotNet.com is a Web site produced by Microsoft).

Mike Amundsen has been cranking along this weekend. Today he added support for the MetaWeblog API in his latest EraBlog.net weblog service. I'm gonna try out his service tomorrow. Anyone who can add several features in a weekend is worth watching. Oh, Mike's been around the .NET block a few times, though. He was the principle author on the "IBuySpy" .NET demo that shipped before .NET did. He tells me he worked on this weblog tool for a few months in his spare time.

Gretchen observes that weblog activity is waning. Well, it's very hard to keep the weblog going. I know Maryam hates it when I come home and get on the computer to type to all of you. So does Patrick. That's cause I steal the computer from him and his punk kittens. Plus, the weather outside is unbelieveable here in Silicon Valley. We're gonna go for a walk and then maybe watch the Raiders.

One other thing, Gretchen. Weblogs will bounce back up when there's something to talk about. The technology world really doesn't have all that much to talk about right now. Tablets? Tivos? I keep checking slashdot and it just doesn't seem very interesting lately.

On the other hand, I know there are people reading and dreaming. Many are still looking for jobs. Maybe turning on the computer depresses them. I know I was deeply depressed when I didn't have a job. I did a good job of hiding it.

One theory I have: anything you do for free is only fun for six to 18 months. It's really hard to stay enthusiastic about something for more than 18 months unless it really is fun. You need to get a payback (not necessarily financial) from it if you're going to keep doing it long term.

Anyway, off to the movies. Go Raiders!

Good morning cat fans! Oh, this is hillarious. Angry Kittens, over at rathergood.com. It +is+ rather good. Check out the other videos too (Uber Pea and Vikings have my family in stitches). Update: Patrick says his favorit is "Punk Kittens."


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Robert Scoble works at Microsoft. Everything here, though, is his personal opinion and is not read or approved before it is posted. No warranties or other guarantees will be offered as to the quality of the opinions or anything else offered here.

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© Copyright 2004 Robert Scoble robertscoble@hotmail.com. Last updated: 1/3/2004; 2:02:59 AM.