Coyote Gulch

Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Denver November 2004 Election
Here's an article about Amendment 36, from the Rocky Mountain News [September 14, 2004, "Amendment 36 would help third parties, politicos say"]. The amendment would change the way that Colorado's electoral votes are awarded in presidential elections. From the article, "If Amendment 36 is approved, Colorado would be the only state to use a system that divides its electoral votes in proportion to the popular vote. For example, a candidate winning 51 percent of the popular vote would get five of Colorado's nine electoral votes, while the opponent with 49 percent would get four. (Senator Ron) Tupa likes to cite the real-world example of the 1992 presidential election, when Bill Clinton won all of Colorado's electoral votes, despite receiving only 40 percent of the statewide vote. George H.W. Bush won 36 percent of Colorado's vote, and Reform Party candidate Ross Perot won 23. Had Amendment 36 been in effect, Clinton would have received three electoral votes, Bush, three; and Perot, two."
A new group, Mothers Are Driving, has formed to oppose FasTracks, according to the Rocky Mountain News [September 14, 2004, "Moms are MAD at FasTracks"]. From the article, "At a news conference Monday, the women said they're concerned that FasTracks will use up funding resources that could later have been applied to highway projects."
8:58:46 AM

2004 Presidential Election
Electoral-vote.com: "Good news for George Bush, Ralph Nader, you, and me but no good news for John Kerry today. The good news for Bush is that he is now ahead by 1% in Florida , 48% to 47% and 1% in Pennsylvania , neither of which is statistically significant, of course. But this tiny shift in two key states puts him ahead in the electoral college again. More good news for Bush is the Strategic Vision (R) poll in Ohio. They have Bush ahead 52% to 40%. However, the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll has Ohio as an exact tie at 47% each. To paraphrase Shakespeare: Something is rotten in the state of Ohio. Given the MoE of 3% these two results are not compatible. The Strategic Vision poll was taken Sept. 10-12 and the Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 6-12, so the Strategic Vision poll is more recent, but such a large change in such a short time is unlikely. Nevertheless, since Strategic Vision is more recent, it goes into the map and the spreadsheet."
Taegan Goddard: "The first AP/Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican convention shows that President Bush pulled "significantly ahead" of Sen. John Kerry for the first time, 51% to 43%. The pollster notes 'if Kerry wants to pull ahead of the incumbent, he would need to mobilize his soft supporters -- people who are generally the least likely to be relied upon to come out on election day -- less well-educated, working class women, and especially those in the South.' However, a new IBD/TIPP poll puts Bush and Kerry 'in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.' Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, 45% to 43%. Among likely voters, both men are tied at 46%. Here are the latest state polls: Pennsylvania - Bush 49%, Kerry 48% (Rasmussen); Wisconsin - Bush 49%, Kerry 45% (Gallup); Indiana - Bush 54%, Kerry 38% (Research 2000); Alabama Bush 54%, Kerry 34% (Capital Survey)."
Taegan Goddard: "Here are the latest state polls: Ohio - Bush 52%, Kerry 42% (Strategic Vision); New Jersey Kerry 47%, Bush 43% (Strategic Vision)."
8:29:18 AM

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