Coyote Gulch

 



















































































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  Wednesday, September 22, 2004



2004 Presidential Election

Electoral-vote.com: "Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 269 - Bush 253. Thirteen new polls today and since ARG is going to release 30 new polls today I will have even more tomorrow. Before getting into today's data, a small technical note. Since there are so many overlapping polls now, something that didn't happen before, questions like should a Sept. 14-16 poll replace a Sept. 12-18 poll are starting to occur. To be consistent, I have formulated a set of rules described below. As a consequence of these rules, five of the new Mason-Dixon polls are not being included (MI, MO, OR, PA, and WI), because they do not meet the new criteria for replacing an existing poll. Only one of these changes who is ahead (WI) but since ARG is releasing a new poll for Wisconsin today, having one poll be in dispute for one day is a small price to pay for a clear and consistent set of rules about which poll is most recent."

"The big news today is that Kerry is once again ahead in the electoral college by dint of his edging ahead in Florida (49% to 48%) and New Jersey (47% to 43% among RVs). However, these gains were partially offset by loses in Iowa and New Mexico. In Iowa, a new Gallup poll puts Bush ahead 48% to 43%. In New Mexico. a new Mason-Dixon poll taken Sep. 15-16 puts Bush ahead 47% to 43%, compared to Zogby's Sept. 13-17 poll showing a Kerry lead of 54% to 42%. That is a 15% switch in a couple of days, far outside the MoE. Clearly there are serious methodological issues here. These issues far overshadow the MoE, which is why I don't include the MoE in the spreadsheets. If one pollster is mostly sampling Democrats and another is mostly sampling Republicans, the MoE doesn't mean a lot."

Update: Senator Kerry leads President Bush 76% to 7% amongs american Muslims according to a recent Zogby poll. Thanks to Taegan Goddard for the link.

Update: President Bush leads Senator Kerry 47% to 46% nationally according to a recent American Research Group poll.
8:38:19 AM     



Colorado Water

Here's a short article about using the Colorado River Compact as a model for allocating Colorado's water in the eight basins, from the Rocky Mountain News [September 22, 2004, "Water plan may draw on history"]. From the article, "As Colorado water utilities wrestle with a lingering drought and how to quench the thirst of an estimated additional 2.2 million people by 2030, the pressure to develop new water sources is growing...The Statewide Water Supply Initiative, as the study is known, shows that state water demand, particularly along the Front Range, will soar by about 60 percent by 2030. Front Range water utilities have long resisted state efforts to interfere in water-development issues. But Aurora and Denver officials said using intrastate compacts among basins might have merit."
8:10:28 AM     



Denver November 2004 Election

Voter registration numbers are in and the November election seems to have gotten the attention of the electorate, according to the Rocky Mountain News [September 22, 2004, "Hot races attract voters to Nov. 2"]. From the article, "About 30,000 Coloradans registered to vote from mid-August to mid-September, the latest wave in a year of unprecedented voter interest in politics. Democrats in that 27-day span registered more voters than Republicans - 17,749 voters to 15,777 voters, according to the latest figures from the secretary of state through Sept. 14. Unaffiliated voters declined by 3,694 during the period, perhaps indicating new allegiances, but in any event putting the net number of new voters at 29,832...The GOP still holds the largest voting block in the state, accounting for 37 percent of the voters. Unaffiliated voters are second, at 32 percent; and Democrats are third, at 31 percent."

According to the Rocky Amendment 36 would win big if the election were held today [September 22, 2004, "Electoral overhaul taking a big lead"]. From the article, "Poll respondents favor it, 47 percent for to 35 percent opposed. Less than half those polled said they'd "definitely" support or oppose the measure - 22 percent for, 21 percent against. A combined 39 percent said they'd "probably" vote for or against it, and 18 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, which interviewed 500 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in November's election. Conducted Sept. 12 and 13, its margin of error is plus or minus 4.33 percentage points." Say it ain't so.

Here's a background piece about Amendment 36 from the Rocky Mountain News [September 22, 2004, "Amendment puts Colorado in world's eye"]. From the article, "They say the measure would reduce Colorado's national influence. What candidate, they argue, would campaign here for the one or two electoral votes realistically up for grabs - and what president would keep Colorado voters in mind when considering highway funding or military base closures? They question the motives of the measure's primary benefactor, Jorge Klor de Alva, a university president who lives in California and who supporters say simply wants to reform the Electoral College. And opponents say this year, partisans on both sides risk giving away half the prize of the tightly fought presidential race."

The environment is going to be part of the battle between Ken Salazar and Peter Coors in the race for the U.S. Senate, according to the Rocky Mountain News [September 22, 2004, "Environment key in Senate contest"]. From the article, "Salazar's record stems mainly from his handling of environmental cases during his two terms as Colorado's attorney general and from his earlier tenure as head of the state Department of Natural Resources. Coors has spent his entire career working in the family corporation, which runs the world's largest single-site brewery. His job, he says, requires him to be familiar with various state and federal environmental regulations."

Here's a short article about FasTracks from the Rocky Mountain News [September 22, 2004, "Tossing around FasTracks"].

Update: Here's an opinion piece from the Denver Post about Referendum A [September 22, 2004, "Referendum A would alter civil service laws"]. From the article, "Many of the same rules that guided hiring and firing in 1918 remain in place today, despite the efforts of various governors and lawmakers to change the system. Enter Referendum A, the first major reform effort of state civil service laws in a generation, which is on the ballot this fall. If approved by voters, it will make sweeping changes to the state[base ']s hiring practices, giving government more of the flexibility of private industry. It also would bring other realities of the 21st century economy to Colorado government: more contracting with outside workers and outsourcing overseas"
8:04:23 AM     



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