Coyote Gulch

Friday, September 17, 2004

2004 Presidential Election
Colorado is a toss-up between George Bush and John Kerry, according to the Rocky Mountain News [September 17, 2004, "Kerry, Bush running even"]. From the article, "Six weeks before Election Day, the Republican incumbent leads the Massachusetts Democrat 45 percent to 44 percent among Coloradans. That's 8 points less than Bush's lead in April and well within the new poll's margin of error. Ralph Nader polled 3 percent, even as Democrats are suing to keep him off Colorado's ballot. Six percent were undecided. The poll shows independents are keeping the race close. And it suggests the state's nine electoral votes will hinge on two things: voter turnout and whether the economy or national security most occupies voters' minds on Nov. 2...More than half the respondents - 53 percent - said the country is on the wrong track, compared to 42 percent who said it's going in the right direction. That's comparable to what the recent national poll found"
Electoral-vote.com: "The American Research Group is polling all 50 states. All were telephone polls with a MoE of 4%. The first 20 polls were just released. The rest will follow soon. The first batch were mostly the solid blue and solid red states, including the first polls for Nebraska and Wyoming. Bush has commanding leads of 31% and 36%, respectively in those two states. That's why nobody was willing to spend the money to poll them before. The only two states that changed are Maine (was tied, now Kerry by 4%) and Colorado (was Kerry by 1%, now Bush by 1%). The poll also concluded that without Nader, Kerry is leading Bush nationally by 48% by 45% and with Nader by 46% to 45% with Nader at 3%. Among likely voters, it is Kerry 47%, Bush 47%, Nader 3%. The Harris national poll (Sept. 9-13) puts Kerry ahead 48% to 47% and the Pew poll (Sept. 11-14) puts Bush ahead 47% to 46%. In contrast, Gallup (Sept. 13-15) has Bush ahead 55% to 42%. It is not clear why Gallup is contradicting three other polls that say the race is tied nationally. Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "Although other recent national polls (see here and here) find the presidential race getting closer, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows President Bush 'has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters... The 55% to 42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.' Al Hunt has a must-read piece for poll watchers and leaves us with this advice: 'If almost all the election eve polls show one candidate up four or five points or more, take it to the bank. But if most show the race within a couple of points, plan on staying up late election night.' Here are the latest state polls: Pennsylania - Bush 49%, Kerry 49% (Keystone); Colorado- Bush 45%, Kerry 44% (Rocky Mountain News)."
5:38:58 AM

Denver November 2004 Election
Govenor Owens has decided against supporting FasTracks, according to the Denver Post [September 17, 2004, "Owens opposed to FasTracks"]. From the article, "In a blow to supporters of RTD's FasTracks plan, Gov. Bill Owens said he is opposing the $4.7 billion transit expansion because it will have an "imperceptible" impact on traffic congestion in metro Denver. FasTracks proponents said they were "disappointed" but not surprised by the governor's announcement. Supporters of the transit plan, which would build at least six new rail lines in the Denver area over the next 12 years, had hoped that Owens would stay neutral on a proposed tax increase for FasTracks." Here's the coverage from the Rocky Mountain News [September 17, 2004, "Owens not aboard"].
Here's a short article about Peter Coors and Ken Salazar trading barbs at a luncheon meeting with the Colorado Contractors Association, from the Denver Post [September 17, 2004, "Coors, Salazar clash on economy, security"]. From the article, "Brewery heir Coors hewed to the Republican Party line: Tax cuts will improve the economy, and national defense should not be left in the hands of the United Nations. Salazar, the state's Democratic attorney general, presented himself as a politician who transcends party labels and who would work to break gridlock in the capital. He supported targeted tax cuts, and he blamed partisanship for stalling efforts to protect the American homeland." Here's the coverage from the Rocky Mountain News [September 17, 2004, "'I'm not going to take it anymore'"].
From the Post, "Jeff Peckman, the sponsor of the Denver peacefulness initiative shot down last year, is jumping into the race in Colorado House District 2. Running as an unaffiliated candidate, Peckman is taking on incumbent Democrat Mike Cerbo, who faces no Republican opponent."
Also from the Post, "U.S. Senate candidates Pete Coors and state Attorney General Ken Salazar will participate in a Senate Candidate Forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters of Colorado from 9:15 to 10:15 a.m. Saturday at the Park Hill Golf Club, 4141 E. 35th Ave."
Reggie Rivers speaks out in favor of Amendment 36 in his column in today's Denver Post [September 17, 2004, "Electoral conundrum"]. He writes, "Colorado is an evenly divided state. In our national representation, we have three solidly Republican congressional districts, two solidly Democratic districts and two that could swing either way. Republican Pete Coors and Democrat Ken Salazar appear to be in a dead heat for the U.S. Senate seat, and before Republican Gov. Bill Owens took office, Democrat Roy Romer held the state's top post for 12 years. The balance of power in Colorado could easily shift to the Democrats, in which case Republicans would be glad to win four electoral votes rather than none. Thus, Amendment 36's backers can argue that under their plan Democrats wouldn't be forced to vote for George W. Bush, Republicans wouldn't be forced to vote for John Kerry, and everyone could go the polls with the assurance that his vote will be counted only for his candidate."
Reform Party candidate, Victor Good has announced for the U.S. Senate from Colorado. From Mr. Good's website, "OVER THE LAST 2 DECADES THE DEMOCRATS AND THE REPUBLICANS HAVE: Created a mind blowing federal debt of over $7 trillion. Passed trade agreements that have created trade deficits of billions of dollars. Exported our manufacturing base. Destroyed the pension plans of millions. Widened the gap between the middle and upper classes. Misled the American citizens to war! Created a country filled with FEAR!!"
5:11:42 AM

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