Waves and Things Mitch Ratcliffe puts the Next Big Thing list in perspective...
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While I can appreciate the focus that a "big thing" lends to folks with a business degree, the broader and more flexible approach to decisions about resources afforded by a historical perspective tell me that it is the Next Long Move, a trend that pulls people and organizations along new paths, that provides the richest opportunities. Trends are based on collections of things, not any one thing... A focal point-like "big thing" makes you subtract everything from the picture that doesn't fit. [RatcliffeBlog] |
Schumpeter's Business Cycles (1939) proposed a three-cycle model of economic fluctuations or waves. Squeezing a fourth cycle between his second and third, we get...
- Kitchin inventory cycle (3-5 years)
- Juglar investment cycle (7-11 years)
- Kuznets infrastructural investment cycle (15-25 years)
- Kondratieff long cycle (45-60 years)
For Schumpeter, three Kitchins make up one Juglar and six Juglars make up one Kondratieff. Fitting in the Kuznets, we presumably have two or three Juglars to one Kuznets and three Kuznets to one Kondratieff.
Right now we are at the beginning of the next Juglar investment cycle. I believe what Mitch calls a Long Move is a Kuznet wave, a major adoption of new infrastructure that impacts all facets of humanity. We are in the middle of a Kondratieff wave, that of IT.
The next Kondratieff wave is what Zack Lynch is blogging about, the Neurotechnology wave. Zack speaks in waves, so if you want to learn more about the concept and history of waves, follow his posts.
I agree with Mitch that Things are not enough to base an cash or time investment decision upon, larger trends, or waves, need to be taken into account. However, I like lists of Things to be sure Im not missing any I need to invest time to understand. And when you find something that interests and makes sense for you, understand the wider context -- and go for the Juglar Jugular.
5:12:56 PM 
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Autonomic computing
