2004 Presidential Election
Electoral-vote.com: "Good news for George Bush, Ralph Nader, you, and me but no good news for John Kerry today. The good news for Bush is that he is now ahead by 1% in Florida , 48% to 47% and 1% in Pennsylvania , neither of which is statistically significant, of course. But this tiny shift in two key states puts him ahead in the electoral college again. More good news for Bush is the Strategic Vision (R) poll in Ohio. They have Bush ahead 52% to 40%. However, the Rasmussen 7-day tracking poll has Ohio as an exact tie at 47% each. To paraphrase Shakespeare: Something is rotten in the state of Ohio. Given the MoE of 3% these two results are not compatible. The Strategic Vision poll was taken Sept. 10-12 and the Rasmussen poll was taken Sept. 6-12, so the Strategic Vision poll is more recent, but such a large change in such a short time is unlikely. Nevertheless, since Strategic Vision is more recent, it goes into the map and the spreadsheet."
Taegan Goddard: "The first AP/Ipsos poll conducted after the Republican convention shows that President Bush pulled "significantly ahead" of Sen. John Kerry for the first time, 51% to 43%. The pollster notes 'if Kerry wants to pull ahead of the incumbent, he would need to mobilize his soft supporters -- people who are generally the least likely to be relied upon to come out on election day -- less well-educated, working class women, and especially those in the South.' However, a new IBD/TIPP poll puts Bush and Kerry 'in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.' Among registered voters, Kerry holds a two-point edge over Bush, 45% to 43%. Among likely voters, both men are tied at 46%. Here are the latest state polls: Pennsylvania - Bush 49%, Kerry 48% (Rasmussen); Wisconsin - Bush 49%, Kerry 45% (Gallup); Indiana - Bush 54%, Kerry 38% (Research 2000); Alabama Bush 54%, Kerry 34% (Capital Survey)."
Taegan Goddard: "Here are the latest state polls: Ohio - Bush 52%, Kerry 42% (Strategic Vision); New Jersey Kerry 47%, Bush 43% (Strategic Vision)."
8:29:18 AM 
|
|
