2004 Presidential Election
Colorado is a toss-up between George Bush and John Kerry, according to the Rocky Mountain News [September 17, 2004, "Kerry, Bush running even"]. From the article, "Six weeks before Election Day, the Republican incumbent leads the Massachusetts Democrat 45 percent to 44 percent among Coloradans. That's 8 points less than Bush's lead in April and well within the new poll's margin of error. Ralph Nader polled 3 percent, even as Democrats are suing to keep him off Colorado's ballot. Six percent were undecided. The poll shows independents are keeping the race close. And it suggests the state's nine electoral votes will hinge on two things: voter turnout and whether the economy or national security most occupies voters' minds on Nov. 2...More than half the respondents - 53 percent - said the country is on the wrong track, compared to 42 percent who said it's going in the right direction. That's comparable to what the recent national poll found"
Electoral-vote.com: "The American Research Group is polling all 50 states. All were telephone polls with a MoE of 4%. The first 20 polls were just released. The rest will follow soon. The first batch were mostly the solid blue and solid red states, including the first polls for Nebraska and Wyoming. Bush has commanding leads of 31% and 36%, respectively in those two states. That's why nobody was willing to spend the money to poll them before. The only two states that changed are Maine (was tied, now Kerry by 4%) and Colorado (was Kerry by 1%, now Bush by 1%). The poll also concluded that without Nader, Kerry is leading Bush nationally by 48% by 45% and with Nader by 46% to 45% with Nader at 3%. Among likely voters, it is Kerry 47%, Bush 47%, Nader 3%. The Harris national poll (Sept. 9-13) puts Kerry ahead 48% to 47% and the Pew poll (Sept. 11-14) puts Bush ahead 47% to 46%. In contrast, Gallup (Sept. 13-15) has Bush ahead 55% to 42%. It is not clear why Gallup is contradicting three other polls that say the race is tied nationally. Jimmy Breslin of Newsday had an column yesterday that, if true, makes this website irrelevant. Breslin claims that pollsters do not call the 168 million cell phones in the country. Since many younger voters do not have a land line and just a cell phone, they will be hugely underrepresented in all the telephone polls. Since younger voters lean more towards the Democrats than the average voter, the polls may be greatly underestimating Kerry's strength. Between missing all the people who have only a cell phone and no land line and the 5 million overseas voters, the polls maybe missing a very large section of the electorate. If anyone working for a pollster or telecom company knows ***for sure*** whether pollsters call cell phones, please let me know. But please don't send e-mail on this subject if you are just speculating."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "Although other recent national polls (see here and here) find the presidential race getting closer, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll shows President Bush 'has surged to a 13-point lead over Sen. John Kerry among likely voters... The 55% to 42% match-up is the first statistically significant edge either candidate has held this year.' Al Hunt has a must-read piece for poll watchers and leaves us with this advice: 'If almost all the election eve polls show one candidate up four or five points or more, take it to the bank. But if most show the race within a couple of points, plan on staying up late election night.' Here are the latest state polls: Pennsylania - Bush 49%, Kerry 49% (Keystone); Colorado- Bush 45%, Kerry 44% (Rocky Mountain News)."
5:38:58 AM 
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