2004 Presidential Election
A new Pueblo Chieftain poll for Colorado continues the trends of the last couple of week for polls to be all over the map. The poll shows the President with a commanding lead in Colorado, according to the Denver Post [September 23, 2004, "Poll: Bush has 12-point lead over Kerry in Colorado"]. From the article, "In all, 51 percent of the respondents said they would vote for Bush while 39 percent said they would vote for Kerry, according to The Pueblo Chieftain poll conducted by Ciruli Associates of Denver... Seven percent were undecided and 2 percent chose 'other.' The poll, a telephone survey of 600 registered voters on Sept. 14-18 who said they are likely to go to the polls Nov. 2, has a margin for error of 4 percentage points...According to the poll, 85 percent of Republicans said they were supporting Bush, along with 13 percent of the Democrats and 44 percent of unaffiliated voters. Kerry had the support of 77 percent of the Democrats contacted, 6 percent of the Republicans and 34 percent unaffiliated.
Electoral-vote.com: "The American Research Group has now released the polls it took in every state plus D.C. so for the first time we have a recent poll in every state. Not all of the spreadsheet entries use the ARG poll because, as explained yesterday, the most recent poll wins, where the middle of the polling period determines the date. In some states other polls have come in since the ARG poll in that state. So what is the result of all 50 states having recent polls? Today's score is Kerry 255, Bush 273, a small lead for Bush and just barely above the 270 votes in the electoral college. But with a dozen states in the tossup category, the race is still a tie. But wait, there are two polls on the spreadsheet that are virtually certain to be badly wrong. Maryland is an exact tie now. But if you look at the graph for Maryland, it is clear that Maryland has been strongly for Kerry for months and Democratic for years. Bush has no more chance in Maryland than Kerry does in Alabama. So if we assign Maryland to Kerry, the score is then Kerry 265, Bush 273. Seems like a clear, if small, Bush victory, no? Well, not so clear. Consider Colorado. A small and relatively unknown polling firm, Ciruli, has announced that Bush is ahead in Colorado by an implausible 55% to 39%, a 14% lead. There have been six polls since Aug 16 in Colorado, every single one of them had the race either exactly tied or one of the candidates was ahead by 1%. Even the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies had Bush only 1% ahead as recently as Sept 13. Assuming the folks at Ciruli just made up some numbers, and Bush is ahead by 1%, everything depends on the Colorado referendum to split the electoral vote proportionally to the popular vote."
How about testing your personality and it's effect on your preferred presidential candidate? Thanks to Taegan Goddard for the link.
Taegan Goddard: "Here are the latest state polls: Wisconsin - Bush 53, Kerry 43 (ABC News); Oregon - Bush 48, Kerry 47 (Survey USA); Washington - Kerry 51, Bush 46 (Survey USA); Texas - Bush 58, Kerry 37 (Survey USA); South Carolina - Bush 58, Kerry 38 (Survey USA); Nevada - Bush 52, Kerry 43 (Gallup); West Virginia - Bush 51, Kerry 45 (Gallup)."
8:19:39 AM 
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