The symposium was held in Salt Lake City on March 7th and 8th. There were about 400 people in attendance and the speakers included scientists, economists, utility leaders and authors. The symposium was different from others on the issue of climate change. Very little time was spent trying to convince attendees that the planet is warming, rather, the focus was on what is already happening, the need for the planet to act in a global manner quickly and the technologies and methodologies that can be part of the solution.
Action Required
If there was one overriding theme to the conference it was that action on global warming must occur soon, in the next few years, to avoid the catastrophic disruptions predicted. For example, biologist Terry Root (Stanford) informed those present that we are witnessing the 6th mass extinction in Earth's history. The extinction rate due to greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere will be about 20-30% of species and has started in earnest.
Author Bill McKibben was the last speaker on Saturday. He issued a call to those present to kick start a movement to get governments around the world to embrace a 350 ppm ceiling for carbon dioxide. That's a pretty ambitious goal since the world is already at 380 ppm. He bases his call on climatologist James Hansen's (NASA) recent work. They both claim that the current -- possibly not attainable -- ceiling of 450 ppm was chosen capriciously and may not in fact be effective in slowing run away global warming. He also mentioned that species are adapting to warming in ways that are detrimental to humankind. For example, the mosquito that transmits Dengue fever to humans is expanding poleward. As a result, "Dengue is spreading ferociously," he said. Bangladesh recently experienced their first outbreak of the disease. Ironically, according to McKibben, the carbon footprint of Bangladesh is more a less a "rounding error" in overall global carbon emissions and they are suffering due to the actions of wealthy nations. McKibben warned that "The magnitude of this change is coming at us much faster that we could have predicted," and scientists, who are now in a mild state of panic, "Vastly underestimated the planet's response to warming.[per thou] McKibben's new project website is at 350.org.
Economist, Brian Murray (Duke), presented some of the economic analysis that he and his colleagues have collected. Global warming skeptics are becoming less numerous and, "The global warming debate is shifting from science to economics," he said. Even the business community -- in greater numbers -- is no longer resisting. He sees a, "Low Carbon Revolution," where, "Those that deliver low carbon will win and those that can't adapt will die." His research shows that global emissions are roughly one third from the U.S., one third from China and one third from the rest of the world. He favors government intervention to set up a "Carbon market," consisting of a, "Cap and trade system." The cap would set an absolute limit in time. Parties should be allowed to trade, or bid amongst themselves, for carbon credits. This worked to reduce SO2 emissions and therefore acid rain. It should work for greenhouse gases as well. Predictability of costs for business is key to getting their support. In addition everyone has to be treated equally by playing under the same rules. For the first time in recent experience he sees a decent chance of legislation coming out of the U.S. Congress. He urged action this year on the Lieberman-Warner "America's Climate Security Act."
Nuclear energy is an extremely clean source with respect to CO2. However, waste products and the potential for nations to develop a nuclear arms capability are holding nuclear back as a tool in the global war on carbon. Victor Reis, a senior advisor at the Department of Energy, commented that storage of nuclear waste has a good record and that both short term (dry casks onsite) and long term (storage in geologically stable salt domes) solutions exist. He acknowledges the problem of, "Intergenerational fairness," asking, "What policies need to be in place when we hand off storage to generations in the future?" He recommends a lease program for fissionable material where countries using it to generate electricity would return the waste and plutonium from fission to the producers so it could not be used for weapons production. He would also like to see strong workable treaties reducing or eliminating nuclear weapons.
Another piece of the puzzle is an extension of the production tax credit for wind energy. It is set to expire at the end of 2008. The extension has passed the House but failed in the Senate. Engineer, Maureen Hand, from the National Wind Technology Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory advocates for renewal. She told attendees that wind is the fastest growing alternative energy source today but is sensitive to tax credits. She hopes to see the U.S. deploy 300 giga-watts of wind energy by 2030 or 100,000 3 watt turbines. She acknowledged the fact that this will also require investment in additional transmission lines.
Action items on the list for solar energy include laws easing requirements to acquire rights of way for new transmission lines, according to Dianne Nielson, energy advisor to Governor John Huntsman of Utah. For solar to succeed the country needs to be able to move electricity from the best sites (currently in the Southwest) to where it's needed. Permitting problems slow the process. According to engineer Chuck Kutscher solar also needs an investment tax credit to help jump start installations. He also maintains that the combination of all renewables together is required to meet carbon goals by 2050.
According to law professor, Lincoln Davies, the nation needs to develop strategies to de-couple utility profits from demand if we're going to push conservation. He also emphasizes regulation of greenhouse gases. Policy decisions need to made in light of fact that "Energy use and the environment are inextricably linked."
In addition to the actions already mentioned, Ned Farquhar, talking about energy security, listed: Increased fuel efficiency in the transportation sector; Fuel switching to electricity; Reduction in vehicle miles driven; An agreement on trade and energy policy with Mexico and Canada along with the formation of a North American Energy Council; Multi-lateralization of oil defense around the world; Renewed emphasis on energy efficiency (i.e. buildings, appliances, the electric grid); Long-term stable increase in renewables; Practical international carbon limits while rewarding countries for, "Doing it right."; and a freeze on conventional coal until carbon sequestering technologies are available. He also mentioned the need for a carbon market and cap and trade system.
Neville Holt spoke about his organization, the Electrical Power Research Institute, and their efforts to develop carbon sequestering technologies by building pilot demonstration projects. He advocates for more funding and research in this area while acknowledging that the technology is largely unproven. In addition he told the attendees, "Carbon capture and storage acceptance liability questions have not been answered." In other words where does the liability lie if a method for sequestration fails?
Randy Udall helped frame the need for action on sensible energy policy for the world. "We're in the most magic time in history," he said. We've seen the release of one half of the CO2 in human history, "in the last 25 years," he said, adding, "Can the big bonfire continue?" His answer is no. Peak oil is imminent and coal is getting harder to find and more dangerous to recover (He cited the recent mine disaster in Helper, Utah). "Energy is an IQ test that americans have failed," he said, adding, "Climate change as a framework will not drive energy policy."
Optimism prevailed amongst most of the speakers and those in attendance. The need to act soon was acknowledged. Kevin Cummins from Salt Lake said, over lunch one day, "All three presidential candidates, still in the race, are on board," adding that, "We need an effort similar to that at the start of World War II." He thinks that the political will to act is rising.
More Coyote Gulch coverage here.
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