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Wednesday, April 30, 2008
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Paul Krugman (via The NYT): "I've had time to look at it a bit more closely -- and it's much weaker than the headline number suggests (and MUCH weaker than the previous quarter, even though the growth rate was the same.) It's not just that final sales fell, so that the economy grew only because of inventory accumulation. If you look at consumer spending, purchases of goods actually fell substantially. Only service purchases rose -- and much of that was housing and medical care. As Michael Mandel at Business Week has pointed out, those aren't 'really' consumer decisions: housing 'consumption' is largely imputed rents on owner-occupied homes, and medical care is mostly paid for by insurance. So this really does look like an economy at stall speed, not an economy skirting past the edge of recession (whatever recession means)."
"2008 pres"
7:09:16 PM 
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Juan Cole "According to BBC television, AFP is reporting that Mahdi Army militiamen killed 2 US troops in northern Baghdad on Wednesday morning. US Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates admitted on Tuesday that the reduction in US troop casualties in recent months had ended in the past few weeks, because of the fighting in Sadr City in the capital."
"2008 pres"
6:46:16 PM
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The Jed Report: "For most of this campaign, the Democratic Party has been unified by optimism that our eventual nominee would trounce the Republican candidate in November, 2008. That began to change towards the end of February, when the contest between Senators Clinton and Obama began to turn sharply negative. The media and the Clinton campaign deserve their share of blame for this. And Obama is not perfect, either. But the people who deserve the most blame are the superdelegates, for it is their indecision that has made this mess possible in the first place."
Thanks to Andrew Sullivan for the link.
"2008 pres"
6:44:28 PM
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From EUMETSAT: "The Jason-2 ocean altimetry satellite has now arrived at its launch site in the United States. The satellite is currently scheduled to be launched on the morning of 15 June 2008 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Jason-2 was transported by road from the Thales Alenia Space plant in Cannes, France, where it was built, to Toulouse, from where it was flown by a Boeing 747 aircraft to Vandenberg, with a refuelling stop in Boston."
More from the article:
Jason-2's Ocean Surface Topography Mission will provide a vital contribution to the monitoring of climate change, ocean circulation and weather. Once in orbit and after it has been calibrated by the partners, the satellite will provide oceanographic products on an operational basis to the large EUMETSAT user community using the European weather satellite organisation's proven dissemination capabilities. The main instrument onboard Jason-2 will be the Poseidon 3 dual frequency altimeter. The final orbit of the satellite will be 1,336 km above the Earth at a 66ª inclination. Ocean altimetry is important for meteorology, with Nowcasting and short range forecasting on one end of the spectrum and monthly and even seasonal forecasting on the other. The assimilation of satellite altimetry measurements (notably the wave height), have considerably reduced the error in two-hourly forecasts. Upper ocean thermal structures are a key factor in the development of storms that can threaten shipping and offshore industries and thus need to be monitored. It is therefore of outmost importance that the mission not only continues but that the resulting data and products are available on an operational basis for all user groups. The mapping and modeling of the upper ocean plays a central role in enabling predictions on the medium-range (10 days), monthly and seasonal timescales. Jason-2 will provide continuity in the monitoring of climate and rising sea levels carried out by Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon over the last 15 years.
"cc"
6:30:32 PM
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The Environment News Service: "About 99 percent of the Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia has disappeared since 1940, says World Bank engineer Walter Vergara, in his new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change in Latin America." One of the highest glaciers in South America, Chacaltaya is one of the first glaciers to melt due to climate change. Although the glacier is over 18,000 years old, it is expected to vanish this year. "The greenhouse gases are the main driver," says Vergara. "The scientific community has a consensus - this is manmade."
More from the article:
Since 1970, glaciers in the Andes have lost 20 percent of their volume, according to a report by Peru's National Meteorology and Hydrology Service. Loss of glaciers in the Andes mountain range is threatening the water supply of 30 million people, and scientists say the lower altitude glaciers could disappear in 10 years. With water supplies, agriculture, and power generation at risk, the World Bank and the funding agency Global Environment Facility are working together to develop adaptation strategies for local communities. In addition, the World Bank signed an agreement this month with the Japanese Space Agency that will start providing advance data and high resolution images to better monitor Andes Glacier retreat. Seventy percent of the world's tropical glaciers are in the high Andes Cordillera of Peru, Bolivia, and Ecuador. Of the 18 currently existing mountain glaciers in Peru, 22 percent of the surface has been lost over the past 27 to 35 years, scientists warn. Most of the smaller glaciers in the Andes Cordillera are expected to shrink within a generation. Computer modeling indicates that many of the lower-altitude glaciers could disappear during the next 10 to 20 years. The Latin America and Caribbean region, in particular, is very vulnerable to significant climate impacts, says the [t]he latest report of the UN's International Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, which involves thousands of scientists from around the world, lists evidence from all continents and most oceans showing that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. The water supply in the Andes region due to climate change is already taking place, says the IPCC report, and is predicted to worsen with time.
"cc"
6:22:54 PM
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Here's an update on preparations for the 2008 Democratic National Convention from The Rocky Mountain News. From the article:
Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton's 50-state-fight strategy -- a long, messy, expensive affair -- hasn't had much effect on planning for Denver's center-stage moment. The key elements -- fundraising, security, transportation and lodging -- are on schedule, convention organizers said, and aren't largely affected by the lack of a nominee. Peggy Wilhide, who was the communications director for the 2004 convention in Boston, said they knew Sen. John Kerry was the nominee in March and that the "nuts and bolts" of the convention didn't need input from the campaign. She said for the upcoming convention, she wouldn't be worried unless there wasn't a clear nominee by June. But Democratic National Convention Committee spokeswoman Natalie Wyeth said even if the nominee were not known until July 6 -- the day before the DNCC begins its move-in and build-out at the Pepsi Center -- it wouldn't pose a logistics problem...
On security, Ciruli speculated that a lingering fight for the nomination could add an extra wrinkle to the plans -- officials may have to think about the possibility of an influx of supporters for the two candidates who might not have come to Denver if the nomination were already settled. Already, the estimated number of people expected to arrive in Denver has been raised from 35,000 to 50,000...
As for fundraising, that remains a concern whether there is a nominee in place by now or not. The Denver 2008 Host Committee is required by contract to raise $40.6 million by June, and officials believe they will actually need between $45 million and $50 million to avoid operating in the red. The host committee has missed two fundraising deadlines, though spokesman Chris Lopez said they "continue to move the needle" toward the goal.
"2008 pres"
6:21:10 PM
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© Copyright 2009 John Orr.
Last update: 3/15/09; 2:22:39 PM.
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