Monday, March 10, 2003

Chaos Theory and the Upcoming War Most of the conversation that I have about the war to come is all about whether Bush or any of the key players really knows what they are doing. Did the world's leaders know that they were doing in 1914? Maybe huge "tectonic" forces are taking us to the bifurcation point? As I went back to this article of mine, I have begun to wonder if it is possible to rationalize this type of event. Surely in 1914, the pressures for the overthrow of the Feudal system by the industrial system had reached such a point? Denied a breakout in 1848, they had reached such a head of steam by 1914 that it took a 40 year European civil war and the emergence of the great industrial power, America, to resolve. I am feeling that we stand at the end of the industrial age and that if we do not hit the wall now, it is only a matter of time. The longer we bottle it all up the bigger the bang. We are surely in the "critical" stage of a bifurcation event. Not only is peace fragile, but so are all our institutions. So is the weather, the markets, our health. It will not take much to knock it all over. That is the essence of understanding Chaos. 9:56:17 PM    comment []

Me, You and the Banana According to this report on Humans/Genes and other lifeforms not only am I almost a Chimp (98%Plus) but I share (40) no 50% of my genes with a banana! So what about you? 9:34:22 PM    comment []

Optimizing Brain Function Cut the carbs, eat more protein for breakfast and have sex with someone you love, use it or lose it - a few of the helpful comments in this interesting article on how best to look after your best part - your brain. 9:21:36 PM    comment []

Boyd's World View - A Rationale for Consultants I am always asked, as a consultant, why I am needed. Here is Boyd's answer. No one has the perspective to see oneself clearly. When you are in your own context, you are blind. The essential value of a consultant is that he is not you. He has the outsider's perspective. 9:06:51 PM    comment []

OODA Loops - The Metaphor I have been thinking about how Boyd must have thought through his idea of OODA. This picture made it all seem so real to me. Observe - As a fighter pilot, it would have been unlikely that your main threat would have been in the 210 degrees of vision in front of you. Your threat will come from behind. So it is with life in general. In business in particular. The threat will be hard to see. The good fighter pilot spends most of his time looking behind him. He constantly adjusts his focal length so that he is not always looking in the same place. So with life. Not only will the threat come from behind, but even then it will be hard to spot. How would Compaq have seen Dell 7 years ago? How would United have seen Southwest? Barnes and Noble see Amazon? Orient - Boyd also knew that it was not going to save him, if his only response was to try and fly faster (McDonalds to Subway) or to bob and weave (GM's response to Toyota). He would "flat plate". This involved pulling up the nose of his plane so that it in effect stopped in mid air. His pursuer would fly by into his gunsight. There was no defense to this radical shift in orientation.  This is how he always won his bet. No going faster or bobbing and weaving will save the traditional firm. Decide - In a dogfight, there is no time to "think" you have to "know" what the response is in advance. Pilots practice coping with problems in the simulator. We go to business school and read a book. The German General Staff exam pre 1914 required that the General being tested solve his stated problem in less than 5 minutes. No time for reason only for intuition founded on experience. We are so busy doing things in most places that we don't have time to reflect enough about what has happened to build up our procedural memory. Act - An automatic response. Yet we spend so much time wondering what to do. As Boyd acts, he loops back into Observe and the whole process begins again. Each rotation leads to more confusion for the target. What can the traditional airlines do to cope with the Southwest, Easyjet model? How can a traditional bookseller respond to Amazon? 9:01:41 PM    comment []

Tipping Point - A Visualization This classic graph shows a Tipping Point in action. It shows the adoption by farmers of a new seed. The top line is a geometric curve. The lower line is a Bell curve. When about 5-10% adopt ( the Bell) the take off threshold is reached and the system "Tips" 5:35:50 PM    comment []

Ouch! Watch out for those Snakes Testing the ease of posting a picture using FM RadioStation Really easy - I have been trying for weeks to solve the conventional system. This is great Tough on the guy in the picture though. Any more snakes out there? 5:12:10 PM    comment []