Here is my analysis. We are going to fight a urban house to house battle in Baghdad. We don't have a sufficient number of troops in theater to do a good job of it. The 3rd Mech and the 82 Airborne will likely be the main assault force. Ultimately, the US needs to win this war militarily. This will require that we put away fears of civilian casualties and focus on military victory. We will need to destroy Baghdad in order to win this war. Either way, we lose the political war. In fact, we have probably already lost it. The most important political consequence of this war will need to be that the US can and will take all measures to eliminate threats to global peace -- irrespective of the consequences to civilians. This is draconian, I know (and I hate that it has blundered into this dark place), but it is the only good thing that will come from this. It will be an object lesson for N. Korea.
[John Robb's Radio Weblog]
John - I think that you are right on here. Was not a key lesson of the Civil War that you had to prosecute the war! Until Grant, the Union, "fooled around" in manoeuvre warfare. Grant realized that war is brutal and that it is better to get it over by being brutal. 1939-40 - the British and the French bombed Berlin with leaflets - after all they did not want to provoke the Germans and hoped that they could change their minds about Hitler (Sound familiar?)
By 1944 the allies knew that war was war. Only a complete defeat of Germany would end a European civil war. Now that we are in this - the gloves have to come off. The Arab world is accusing the Coalition of brutality. We will lose more lives by holding back we have lost the propaganda war already. The lesson of history is that the only way you defeat someone is if you really defeat him. Hence the unconditional surrender policy of the allies in WWII. A negotiated peace would have not ended the energy of the German people to assert themselves. It didn't in 1918. It has not in 1991 and a faux end to the war in Iraq risks yet more conflict.
Rome knew how to have a cheap Imperial defense. They made it clear, Carthage and Jerusalem, that if you crossed the line that obliteration was inevitable. No matter how long it would take, an enemy of Rome knew that Rome would go the full measure. Such a policy worked for 400 years.
My point is that underneath all the rhetoric, the Empire is here now. Empires do not win popularity contests - remember the great scene in Monty Python 's life Of Brian when the rebels say 'So what has Rome ever brought us? Another answers "Peace, Trade Roads and Justice" and is in turn answered "Yea but what have they ever given us really? A paraphrase but you get my meaning.
Are we not just beyond the tipping point? The Empire is here. There is no going back to the last stage of the Republic of Clinton.
The Arab world will not be appeased - they do understand violence and might. North Korea is looking for the lesson too. They cannot be appeased but they can fear - they know fear well.
The Empire is here - time to act like one and to take note of the lessons of how be Imperial. I say this with regret and feel as Cicero would have felt. But reality is reality. Mark Antnony (Gore) has been defeated. Young Octavian has become Caesar. Poor Powell, Agrippa, has been used to obtain empire
I fear that all the risk is in the McClellan approach.
7:57:50 AM
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