Maintaining Perspective
An interesting discussion in yesterday's comment box about Tara Grubb and her chances of winning--some people think I should quit saying she isn't going to beat Howard Coble. Anything is possible, but it's not doing any good for Tara Grubb, or the people who might support her, or the opponents of the Coble-Berman P2P bill, to sweeten my reporting and opinion on this Congressional race.
Elections aren't just about candidates, they are also about organizations. You need logistics and planning to get your voters to the polls. You need money and a sense of where to spend it to energize your voters. Coble has almost $1 million in campaign funds on hand. The Republican Party is a strong organization around here. The Libertarian Party is not. Maybe Grubb could get support from the local Democratic machinery, but then again the 6th district Democrats have been too chickenshit to run anyone of their own against Coble for years.
In terms of ideology, Grubb will have a tough time beating Coble at the smaller government game. A Congressional seat is far too valuable for GOP voters to support her anyway, and the Libertarian base is tiny. The votes Grubb needs, then, are Democratic votes--a tough sell for a Libertarian, and harder still to come by in a district that has had significant swatches of traditional Democratic turf gerrymandered out.
In terms of personality, Coble is quite popular. Even folks who don't like his politics find him folksy and hard to dislike. Tara Grubb could make some inroads here--she is young, bright, and apparently willing to work hard. Some things that might hurt an established candidate probably won't hurt her nearly as much--she's very up front about a DWI she got in 2000, for example.
On the issues, P2P is a nice metaphor for her message of individual liberty, and it is certainly a rallying point that will bring her money and ideas via the Web. Hammering on Hollywood Howard Coble's allegiance to his corporate paymasters may peel off a few of his votes. Beyond that, she should be able to grab a few percentage points at the polls via her opposition to a proposed FedEx hub, by being a woman, by being pro-choice, etc. But unless she has a clear plan to rebuild the textile, tobacco, and furniture industries, her message will only take her so far.
So why make such a fuss about her? Her Weblog--which she will have to use carefully--and her connection to that community, make her a historical marker. National concern over a local politician's role in some issue, as translated into money and information over the Web, is going to be increasingly important in electoral politics. A candidate communicating without mediation to her voters and a national audience--a blogging candidate--could present a real challenge to current conventions.
Miracles happen, but they happen rarely enough to be called miracles. What is success for a neophyte Libertarian against a GOP heavyweight--20%? Would 30% be shocking? The last Libertarian got 9% to Coble's 91%. The successes of Grubb's campaign, and its implications for the Weblog nation, will most likely be incremental, not monumental. But in the real world, that's impressive enough.
11:25:35 AM 
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