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Sunday, September 05, 2004 |
| At 8:00 PM EDT, Tropical Storm Frances was 15 miles east-northeast of Tampa, moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph. Winds have weakened to 65 mph and pressure remains 975 mb I am going to start writing "I will not comment on changes in motion caused by trochoidal oscillations" 100 times. Right after my post, I looked at radar again and Frances had wobbled to the west, so the overall motion remains to the west-northwest. Should have known better than to be fooled by her wobbling. It continues to be tranquil here in between rain bands. Sunset was quite remarkable. While I am all for vigilence and alertness when it comes to storms, I am mildly concerned with how much the media is talking about Ivan at this point, particularly with how much they are showing the 5 day forecast track. Remember that on Tuesday morning, the 5 day forecast had Frances making landfall in Jacksonville this morning. With here being so far out, the slightest deviation in heading would have a huge effect on where Ivan is in five days (and beyond). My advice for people in South Florida would be to pay some attention to it, but give it a couple of days time before worrying and planning. The supply chain (for gasoline and disater related goods) will be in shock for a couple of days and a panic now would certainly not help the situation. I'm headed back to my apartment now. If my internet connection is not back up, then this will be my last post for awhile. Check with my friend (and Charley veteran!) Nick West for more blogging from Tallahassee. Weather comment []8:20:57 PM  trackback []
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| Blogging will be sporadic at best for the duration. My internet connection survived the passing of the first feeder band only to mysteriously die an hour later. I have since walked to campus to avail myself of wi-fi connectivity here. It's awfully serene right now as we are between feeder bands right now. The wind is generally calm with a few gusts up to 20-25 mph every once in a while. The band knocked a lot of twigs and small branches loose, but otherwise you wouldn't know that it had passed. Looking at the latest radar loop of Frances, it appears that the turn to the northwest has begun (she may even be heading north now, but appearances can be deceiving). There will certainly be some thankful people on the Panhandle if this trend continues. For people looking for photos and other news, the following media have message boards, blogs, reader-submitted photos, etc. Palm Beach Post
And of course, if you scroll down and read previous posts, you'll find numerous bloggers covering the storm as well...TCPalm (Vero Beach, Jupiter, Fort Pierce area) FloridaToday (Melbourne, Cape Caneveral area) Orlando Sentinel TBO.com (Tampa Bay) St Petersburg Times Weather comment []7:28:34 PM trackback []
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| At 5:00 PM EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Frances was estimated to be 20 miles east of Tampa, moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are just under hurricane strength at 70 mph and minimum central pressure is 975 mpb (29.79"). Since Frances still has something resembling a center, it has a shot of reintensifying slightly as she passes over the Gulf of Mexico tonight en route to St George Island. Here in Tally, the first feeder band is past. There was a brief period of intense rain and wind (peak wind of 45 kts ~ 52 mph). The hourly observation from TLH shows that about half an inch of rain fell in that short period of time. Weather comment []5:12:37 PM trackback []
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| Tallahassee radar shows that the outer-most rain band is about to come across Tallahassee and the rest of the Big Bend area. As power got knocked out in Jacksonville because of these bands, there is an outside chance that the fragile power supply here will get knocked out. So, if there is not a 5 PM update, you'll know why... Closer to the storm... WeatherBlog points out Baylink, near where Frances is passing by. Also, see Tampa Bay Blogs, Crazy Island, and Debwire. Kudos to Pensacola based PaperFrog.com, for his comprehensive lengthy list of Florida bloggers (with locations) Weather comment []4:30:16 PM trackback []
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| So how often do double landfall hurricanes occur in Florida? Not very. I looked at the past 50 years of archived hurricane tracks and found only one storm that made landfall on the east coast of Florida and proceeded to make a landfall on the Panhandle. On August 2, 1995, Erin made landfall near Vero Beach as a minimal hurricane, weakened to a tropical storm over land, and made final landfall again as a minimal hurricane on August 3 near Pensacola (Erin track) The National Hurricane Center published a reasonably detailed report on Erin. Weather comment []2:43:50 PM trackback []
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| Hurricane Ivan became the fourth major hurricane of the season this afternoon. Born on Thursday afternoon, and becoming a hurricane this morning, Ivan has intensified rapidly this morning and is now believed to be a category three hurricane (based off analysis of the satellite images, which do show a compact, yet impressive looking storm). Weather comment []2:17:12 PM trackback []
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| At 2:00 PM minimal Hurricane Frances was centered 55 miles east of Tampa Florida and moving to the west-northwest at 9 miles per hour. Winds and central pressure are estimated to be at 75 mph and 980 millibars (28.94"), respectively. The western/northern-most rain band extends from the Georgia state line to the north-eastern corner of the Gulf coast. The southern-most band runs parallel to the Keys and the eastern-most just barely touches the western Bahamas. While weakening should continue, Frances will be a strong tropical storm when she reaches the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track (from 11AM) brings her back to hurricane strength for a Monday landfall in the vicinity of St George Island and Apalachicola. Weather comment []2:08:23 PM trackback []
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| Looking at the latest composite radar image, it looks like the whole east coast of Florida (from the St Mary's River to Key West and all points in between) is getting rain at the moment. Incredible. Weather comment []12:50:12 PM trackback []
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| At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Frances was estimated to be 25 miles northeast of Sebring and 80 miles east southeast of Tampa. Frances is moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph with winds of 90 mph. Minimum central pressure is estimated to be 975 mb. Because of the possibility of Frances regaining hurricane strength when she's over the Gulf of Mexico, a hurricane warning is now in effect from the mouth of the Suwannee River to Destin. Frances continues to be impressively large as Grand Bahamas Island is still reporting tropical storm force winds. According to the Associated Press, there are now 4 million people without power in Florida. The Orlando Sentinel's stormblog offers these tidbits from West Palm Beach. Gov. Jeb Bush was expected to stop into West Palm Beach at 2 p.m. to survey the damage, where hundreds of trees and at least 19 major power lines are already reported down. The final bands of the storm are expected to pass through the county by early this afternoon. Until then, officials are encouraging residents to stay put and off the roads. Mansion-dwellers from Palm Beach are being kept off the island that is heavily flooded. As Interstate4Jamming pointed out, Orlando Metroblogs has several posts from people regarding Frances. Weather comment []11:35:52 AM trackback []
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| At 3:00 AM, the center of Hurricane Frances was 13 miles west of Stuart, Florida and 25 miles east of Okechobee. Frances is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph and maximum sustained winds remain set at 105 mph and pressure remains 960 mb. The eye is almost entirely onshore now.It appears that the area from Fort Pierce to Vero Beach is going to be affected the worst by winds in the northeast quadrant. Weather comment []3:12:19 AM trackback []
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| At 1:00 AM EDT, Hurricane Frances was in the vicinity of Stuart, Florida. Forward movement has increased to 7 mph, moving to the west-northwest. Maximum sustained winds are held at 105 mph and the minimum central pressure is held at 960 millibars. Weather comment []2:11:41 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2004
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:32 PM .
Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:32 PM .
