Wednesday, September 08, 2004

Hurricane Ivan Update 082300L It has been an evening of strengthening for Ivan.  At 11:00 PM EDT, the center of Ivan was 95 miles north of Curacao and 595 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Track remains to the west-northwest at 17 mph.  Winds have increased to 145 mph and pressure has dropped to 938 millibars (27.70").  Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 27 The estimate of strength could be a touch low.  The observations were reported at about seven this evening, so if it was still in the process of intensifying, then the strength is now higher than observed.  (Hurricane Hunter flights are every six hours, so the next report would come out ~ 1 AM tomorrow morning).  According to the discussion, nearly all of the models, including the superensemble shifted their tracks to the right (east) this evening.  Because of the inconsistency of the models, the track forecast is not shifted as dramatically.  As far as intensity goes, the expectations are for short term strengthening, with some weakening to follow, but for it to remain a major hurricane regardless. Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 27 If I were analyzing this truly seriously, I would be in the labs at the Love building right now, but as I am in my apartment, I don't have access to the absolute latest and greatest.  For now, I'll just say that it is looking pretty bleak for Jamaica. Weather comment []11:16:39 PM   trackback []

Hurricane Ivan Update 081700L At 5:00 PM EDT, Hurricane Ivan was 95 miles north-northeast of Bonaire and 685 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.  Ivan is moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph.  Minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.96"). Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 26 Apparently, President Bush visited the National Hurricane Center today , which I believe would make him the first President to do so. The intensity forecast is unchanged.  The $64 question remains when and how Ivan will turn to the north on the basis of a weakening ridge of high pressure.  The forecast track continues to favor the ridge remaining strong enough to bring Ivan into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 26 After my post last night, I spent a couple of hours looking over the situation and we talked about it in my synoptic meteorology class a bit.  Historically, hurricanes at this latitiude/longitude usually do one of two things: One is to turn to the north and run parallel to the east coast of Florida.  Two is to proceed to the west and curve to the northwest such that they cross over the Yucatan Peninsula of eastern Mexico.  Last night, there was disagreement in the models over which of these two (very different) scenarios would occur.  This morning's model show a bit of consensus, but still a wide spread.  One group of models has the turn to the north happening late enough that Ivan ends up in the Gulf of Mexico running parallel to the west coast of Florida.  Another group has the turn happening a bit earlier such that Ivan is running north offshore of the east coast of Florida (and hooking out to sea).  The qualms I have with the models that forecast an early turn is that they are the same ones that wanted to turn Frances to the north.  From a dynamic standpoint, they appear are doing the same thing for the same reason (a turn to the north based on a weakened ridge of high pressure).  This makes them suspect in my book.  The official National Hurricane Center forecast is going with the Gulf of Mexico scenario at the moment.  The FSU superensemble is rough parallel to (but west of) all of the other models.  At the end of its forecast period, it has Ivan roughly south of Panama City and west of Tampa on a course ever so slightly west of north.  From a practical standpoint, we probably won't know for sure which scenario is playing out until Friday.  People should be in watch and wait mode until then.  Fresh Bilge has also been follwing Ivan and offers some comments on the track as well. Weather comment []5:16:57 PM   trackback []