Saturday, September 25, 2004

Tonight Weather comment []10:34:16 PM   trackback []

Three weeks ago... Weather comment []10:30:20 PM   trackback []

Hurricane Jeanne Update 251900L At 7 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Jeanne was 90 miles east-southeast of Vero Beach Florida, moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph and minimum central pressure is 951 millibars (28.08").  Hurricane force winds extend 70 miles from the center. Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 49A Of course, I haven't had time too look at much of anything.  I do notice that the forecast track shifted a touch westward again.  The good news is that she's not forecast to strengthen much more and she is expected to weaken fairly rapidly after landfall. Weather comment []7:33:50 PM   trackback []

Going to the football game If my beloved little sister did not have me sitting with her at the football game, I would be staying here watching Jeanne.  Alas, if I don't go then she would be by herself (she was going to go with her roomate who is in Orange Park at the moment).  So I am off to Doak Campbell Stadium to watch the FSU- Clemson game.  The National Hurricane Center will have intermediate advisories at 1 and 3 PM with the next complete advisory at 5 PM.  I should be home in time for the 8 PM advisory unless our game goes to overtime.  Check out Florida Cracker, On the Third Hand, and the rest of my fellow bloggers in Florida while I'm gone.  Alan Sullivan ,whose blog always has good commentary during storms, has changed his plans so that he can resume blogging Jeanne by around 4 this afternoon. For everyone watching the storm's progress on satellite loops, remember to not get too focused on the last bit of the loop if the storm wobbles south or north.  Keep an eye on what the trend of the past three to six hours is instead.  That gives you a better idea of what the storm's movement is. (painfully removes himself from his laptop) Florida State, Weather comment []12:44:14 PM   trackback []

Hurricane Jeanne Update 251100L At 11 AM EDT, the center of category three hurricane Jeanne was  75 miles east of Grand Bahamas Island and 155 miles east of Florida .  Movement is to the west at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have risen to 115 mph and minimum central pressure is 955 millibars ( 28.20 ").   Hurricane force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend up to 205 miles, mainly to the north of the center. Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 48 Jeanne's appearance on satellite has gotten better throughout the morning and the forecaster anticipates strengthening to continue.  Forecast track is unchanged for the most part as the reasoning is the same. Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 48 The track shifted ever so subtly to the west.  I wouldn't have been able to tell the difference were it not for the Closest Point of Approach numbers on the Navy's plot of the forecast track.  It shows the northward track being about 20 miles further west than it was in the previous advisory.  While the track is "very close to the global consensus and FSU superensemble", I am willing to bet that it is still to the east of it.    Note that the issue I've been talking about has only subtle implications for the point of landfall.  The general area of landfall is clear. Weather comment []11:30:35 AM   trackback []

GFS woes continue Picking up from one of my themes from yesterday... the GFS model continues to badly mishandle the persistence of the high pressure ridge. Exhibit A 500 millibar analysis at 2 AM today.  Not bad.  Looks to have the center of the high placed about right Exhibit B 500 millibar forecast for 8 AM today.  Bad.  Upper air observations from 8 this morning show that the 500 millibar height in Jacksonville is 5880 meters (in the image, the line representing that hieght, labeled 588, only goes as far south as South Carolina).   In Charleston, which the GFS has forecast a 500 mb height of 5880 meters for, the observation showed a height of 5910 meters.  That is a significant difference and affects how the GFS forecasts the track of the hurricane. The disconcerting thing is that even with this discrepancy, the GFS brings Jeanne to the west coast of Florida before turning north.  Because of this, look for another westward shift in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track released with the 11 AM advisory. Weather comment []10:06:08 AM   trackback []

Hurricane Jeanne Update 250800L At 8 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Jeanne was over Abacore Island in the Bahamas and 190 miles east of Florida.  Motion continues to be to the west at 12 miles per hour.  Maximum sustained winds remain at 105 mph and minimum central pressure has dropped slightly to 957 millibars (28.26") Hurricane force winds extend up to 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 205 miles from the center. Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 47A The latest Hurricane Hunter report (from 7 this morning) had the eye 5 miles smaller in diameter than the report 3 hours earlier.  Another indication that some strengthening could be happening. The eye looks a little better defined on the visual satellite images as well.  It's going to be an interesting day... Weather comment []9:15:33 AM   trackback []

News roundup A quick look at what the print media is saying today with regards to Jeanne. I would have started with the Palm Beach Post, but their site seems to be out of comission at this time.  Instead, we move north to the network of newspapers of tcpalm.com (registration required, bugmenot  provides a username and password).   Flooding, debris will be chief headaches Alcohol on list of necessities for many (from the latter) Joanne Stalheber said she wasn't going to get caught this time. "Last time they banned alcohol sales people were going crazy. I know I ran out," said Stalheber, who lives in the water-soaked Rockridge community in Vero Beach. She bought eight bottles of wine Friday. "I am getting a cigar, too. Might as well go all the way." Stalheber was one of hundreds of local residents who flocked to the ABC Fine Wine & Spirits liquor store in the Miracle Mile Plaza Friday to stock up on alcohol because the County Commission has banned the sales of alcohol and firearms, effective 8 p.m. today. Indian River County's alcohol and firearms ban lasted almost two weeks after Hurricane Frances swept through the Treasure Coast. And with Hurricane Jeanne's winds expected to be stronger, many residents are not taking any chances when it comes to their favorite drinks. Moving north, FloridaToday has a section of hurricane cartoons.  This one seems to aptly describe how most Floridians feel at the moment. Going northwest, the Orlando Sentinel has this AP story Hurricane Spawns Deluge of Rumors The rumors got so bad that Escambia Sheriff Ron McNesby had to address them in front of the news cameras: There absolutely were not, he stressed, hundreds of dead bodies being hidden somewhere to keep the public from finding out the real death toll of Hurricane Ivan. Authorities in Charlotte County had to deal with it, too, after Hurricane Charley last month. One report had it that down there, the corpses were stacked like cord wood in two refrigerated semi trailers. As Ivan was barreling toward Florida, a fast-spreading story originating in Tampa had the state rationing gasoline, touching off a minor panic and a rush by motorists to get their $5 limit before the storm. Gov. Jeb Bush called it an "urban legend" and went on the air to quash it. And some of these rumors don't die.  You can still find conspiracy theory sites that say the death toll from Andrew was much higher than reported but the government hid the bodies, etc. Space Center Prepares for Strike Already battered by two hurricanes, Kennedy Space Center is bracing for a third encounter with a major storm. And moving east to Daytona: Debris piles dwindling but cleanup costs mounting Ignoring the steady rumbling and beeping of a front-end loader, Christopher Varden worked to keep traffic flowing as fellow crew members picked up hurricane debris Friday. It's been a daunting task with up to 2 million cubic yards of debris wrenched free by Hurricane Frances in Volusia County alone, and potentially more on the way if Hurricane Jeanne makes landfall this weekend. Handling a good portion of the cleanup work, which tallied $65 million in Volusia as of Sept. 9, are small crews and one-man operations from as far away as North Carolina, Alabama and Texas. Finally, in Jacksonville Jews unable to prepare for storm If you're Jewish and you're wondering if you still have to abide by Shabbat and Yom Kippur rules even when a hurricane is approaching, the short answer is yes, at least one local rabbi said. Hurricane Jeanne may be creeping toward the First Coast, Rabbi Nochum Kurinsky said, but "all the regular rules of Shabbat and Yom Kippur apply." Further in the article though His advice then, as now, is to prepare as you see fit but don't forgo attending services or observing Shabbat and holidays -- unless the situation is life-threatening. "If there is a mandatory evacuation, then we would have something to discuss." One would hope that Rabbis further south are being sensible.  With the hurricane forecast to make landfall tonight, waiting for Yom Kippur to end before preparing is not a good idea. Brendan Loy's Yom Kippur Hurricane post has an AP article on this matter. Want to know who's blogging Jeanne? Kathy at On the Third Hand has a Hurricane Blogging.  Yet Again. post to let you know. Go check it out. Weather comment []8:28:20 AM   trackback []

Hurricane Jeanne Update 250500L At 5 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Jeanne was 55 miles east of Great Albaco Island in the Bahamas and 240 miles southeast of Florida.  Jeanne is moving to the west at 14 mph and maximum sustained winds are up to 105 mph.  The wind field has grown as hurricane force winds now extend up to 70 miles from the center .  Minimum central pressure is down to 958 millibars (28.29"). Hurricane Jeanne Advisory Number 47 The models are in general agreement with each other although they are not in exact line with one another.  The forecast track (detailed forecast track) has been shifted to the west a little bit.  The intensity forecast remains for Jeanne to be a category three at landfall. Hurricane Jeanne Discussion Number 47 The one thing I don't get in the discussion is this statement: THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR The current motion is due west or very close to it.  If you are going to continue the current motion in the forecast, then you would have the storm moving due west until reaching the coast.  The current forecast has a gradual turn to the northwest becoming apparent by early this afternoon  (in the vicinity of Grand Bahamas Island).  (Note that the previous forecast had the turn being sharp by 8 this morning, which is obviously not happening).  If you were to keep the motion the same to the coast and shift the track accordingly... you would get the NOGAPS track (which as I said last night bears a remarkable resemblence to Frances' track).  Maybe the forecaster wanted to shift the track that much, but was limited by continuity (i.e. he can't deviate from the previous track too much).  People on the Florida peninsula from Lake Okechobee north shold be paying close attention and finalizing their preparations for our latest unwelcome guest. Weather comment []7:40:50 AM   trackback []

A couple of things... ...before I call it an evening: The models look to be converging. The latest GFS run now brings Jeanne fully inland before turning to the north.  The track forecast from the latest NOGAPS run is best described as Frances' track (through 60 hours / Monday morning anyhow, after that the front catches Jeanne and forces her to the northeast rapidly).  The Canadian model shifted its track to the west again and is pretty similar to the NOGAPS track (note that for some reason the black and white graphics get updated before the color ones).  I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC's forecast shifted a bit more to the west in the 5 AM update. Something I've been reading in my very limited spare time that other hurricane enthusiasts may find of interest is the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting.  The only downside to it is that it is a bit dated now, but it is an informative read nonetheless. Weather comment []1:23:28 AM   trackback []