|
Saturday, September 11, 2004 |
| At 11 PM EDT, Ivan was 105 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain set at 165 mph. Minimum central pressure has fallen yet again and is now 910 millibars (26.87"). With seemingly favorable conditions in place for the next 24 hours or so, Ivan *could* strengthen more before passing by the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The dynamics of the track forecast remain unchanged (although, note that the forecast has shifted to the west yet again). Ivan is now in an elite class of storms. The only storms with lower minimum central pressures are definitely "Hall of Fame" storms. The names of each are known by all meteorologists and weather hobbyists with any kind of interest in hurricanes. On a related note, I can't say that I ever thought I would see the words "central pressure" in the lead headline on Drudge. Weather comment []10:40:27 PM  trackback []
|
| Came across this story today: Florida Man Attempts to Reduce Hurricane's Power Unfortunately, the article does not give the scientists' side of the story. For that we go to the Tropical Cyclone Myths Page, specifically, Why don't we try to destroy tropical cyclones by adding a water absorbing substance? Weather comment []9:32:19 PM trackback []
|
| At 8 PM EDT, Ivan was 130 miles southeast of Grand Cayman Island and wobbling westward. Winds remain at 165 mph and minimum central pressure has fallen to 912 millibars. Looking at the latest frames of the satellite loop, it appears that Ivan is wobbling northwest again. Walked to the Love building this afternoon to peek at the superensemble track. It's a bit further west than the NHC forecast. If I lived between, say, Mobile and Panama City, I would be going shopping tomorrow and if I were in adjacent areas, I would be paying close attention to Ivan's progress. The Pensacola News-Journal has a good hurricane preparation Q & A. . Weather comment []8:15:05 PM trackback []
|
| At 5:00 PM Ivan was 145 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman Island moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. On this track, Ivan will past very near to Grand Cayman. As noted in the update, Ivan is again a category five hurricane with winds estimated to be 165 mph and pressure estimated to be 914 millibars (26.99") The track forecast is shifted slightly to the left (now showing landfall in the vicinity of Panama City), shear is still anticipated to weaken Ivan a little bit in the Gulf before landfall. Ivan has had text-book appearance on satellite for several hours now. Very pretty, but quite chilling when you think about what that perfect structure represents. Weather comment []4:57:05 PM trackback []
|
| A big thanks to my sister for noting this update from the National Hurricane Center DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE LATER: Re-reading this my next to last sentence, I realize my wording is a bit ambiguous. This pressure and wind speed is the lowest and highest recorded for Ivan respectively. NOT all-time records. It is the lowest pressure recorded since Mitch of 1998 and probably the highest winds recorded since Mitch as well. Weather comment []4:21:19 PM trackback []
|
| Jamaica counts cost of hurricane (BBC, note there is a video link on the page as well) Toll of Death and Ruin Grows in Jamaica (New York Times) In the BBC video, their correspondent reports that a baby boy born during the hurricane will not be named Ivan (unlike the baby born during Frances who now has the storm as her namesake). Later: RadioJamaica.com has several stories regarding Ivan Weather comment []4:14:07 PM trackback []
|
| At 2:00 PM EDT, Ivan was 40 miles west-southwest of the tip of Jamaica, drifting to the west and west-northwest. Winds remain 145 mph and minimum central pressure is 921 millibars (27.18"). The hurricane hunter recently was in the center and seems to have verified the strength estimate (note that the pressure is lower than that given in the 11 AM advisory, however). Looking at the forecast models, the GFS has finally stopped turning Ivan in a short period of time. It now has Ivan hitting the western panhandle. NOGAPS has been pretty consistent for the past two or three runs in its forecast for a landfall on the western panhandle. The Canadian model took a significant westward shift in its run this morning. You can view a summary of some of the model's forecast tracks. (Be sure to note when each was run, sometimes the graphic displays some old runs). You can see some of the global models (with a generous amount of previous runs archived available for comparisions) at Dr Hart's website. When looking at the models, remember that the times are in Zulu, which is four hours ahead of eastern daylight time. That means that the 091112 model run was initialized (started) at 8 AM EDT. Dates are also in zulu. The 091100 model run was started at 8 PM September 10. I can't help but wonder if the NHC is still a little too far east with its landfall forecast. Right now, I would consider landfall possible anywhere between the mid-panhandle of Florida to western Louisiana. Looking at gulf coast newspapers it appears that they are aware of this in Mississippi and Louisiana. The wire story in the Mobile Register focuses on Florida, but does mention the possibilities for points west of Pensacola. As always, everyone needs to be paying attention. Weather comment []2:39:31 PM trackback []
|
| At 11 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 30 miles southwest of the western tip of Jamaica. Ivan's forward motion decreased sharply overnight and the storm has been drifting westward for the past several hours. Winds are 145 mph and minimum central pressure is 925 millibars. The slight reduction in the estimated strength of Ivan is based on assuming that he's been weakend some by his interaction with Jamica. A recon plane will be flying in later to verify the NHC's assumptions. The early part of the track forecast has been pushed west some more, but the landfall point is not changed much. The amount of rain that has fallen on the northern slopes of the mountains in Jamaica has to be absolutely fearsome given Ivan's slow movement in the past 12 hours. I'll have some more commentary once I've caught myself up with the situation. Weather comment []12:14:53 PM trackback []
|
© Copyright
2004
Charles Fenwick
.
Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:34 PM .
Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:34 PM .
