Tuesday, September 07, 2004

Hurricane Ivan Update 072300L Ivan has strengthed to a category four hurricane.  At 11 PM EDT, the center of Ivan was 110 miles west of Grenada and 335 miles east of Bonaire.  Movement is currently to the west at 17 mph and is forecast to shift  towards the northwest tomorrow.  Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 950 millbars (28.05") Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 23 Since his appearance on satellite has improved since the last Hurricane Hunter flew into it, Ivan may be a bit stronger than stated in this advisory.  Forecast models have been bouncing all over the place over the past day (At one point today consensus was for a passing south and west of Cuba (or landfalling on Cuba's western half), now there isn't a consensus).It is anticipated to be a major hurricane (category three or stronger) for the next five days. Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 23 As I've been working on Atmospheric Dynamics and Atmospheric Physics homework, I have not had much time to look at Ivan closely.  The vast spreads between model runs is a solid reason of why one shouldn't put much stock into 5 day forecasts at the moment.  Unfortunately, the 3 day forecasts put out over the past day have been consistent in having Jamaica hit by Ivan in some fashion.  The only bit of optimism for the island is that for the duration, the forecasts have been anticipating a turn towards the northwest that is still yet to happen. Weather comment []11:34:49 PM   trackback []

Updates Now that Frances is but a blob of rain, the recovery effort is up to full speed.  Supply trucks and clean-up equipment were positioned in North Florida and somewhat pinned down by the wild weather yesterday.   Now they are where they need to be. Schools are closed pretty much everywhere Frances passed by, for today, at least.  Volusia County, which had already lost a week to Charley looks to be losing this week to Frances. Hurricane Ivan is near the Windward Islands with 115 mph winds. Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 21 While it could weaken in the short term, it is expected to remain a powerful hurricane. Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 21 I've a backlog of homework and studying to do.   Weather comment []11:43:53 AM   trackback []