Friday, September 10, 2004

Hurricane Ivan Update 101700L ...IVAN EXPECTED TO HIT JAMAICA TONIGHT... At 5 PM EDT, Ivan was 80 miles south-southeast of Jamica, moving to the west -northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140 mph and minimum central pressure has risen to 937 mb (27.67") Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 34 Some restrengthening is possible before Ivan hits Cuba.  After that, he's predicted to be in an area of shear that would weaken it somewhat.  Nonetheless, it is expected to be a minimum category three at landfall.  Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 34 Pray for Jamaica After Frances, pretty much everyone in Florida is painfully aware that a hurricane is not a dot on a map.  While the current track forecast does not have Ivan making landfall on the west coast of the peninsula, it does have it brushing by close enough to be of concern for residents there. The NHC forecast and the models have been drifting left (west) over the past day.  The ridge is proving to be stronger than some models were giving it credit for. While I had deemed tomorrow to be the planning day/ action day for coastal residents, I'll offer some advice now.  People from New Orleans to Tampa/Fort Myers should be paying attention to the storm and begin thinking about their plans for early next week. We took a poll in my synoptic meteorology class on where people were forecasting landfall.  Slightly more than half opted for Florida Panhandle/Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana (Panhandle and Mississppi/Lousiana were offered as separate choices... only a couple opted for the western point).  The balance of the class opted for west coast of Florida.  I voted for Panhandle. My sister fowarded me this editorial cartoon regarding the situation. IMAO has received this postcard in e-mail. For the balance of the evening, I will be worried about these Hurricanes. GO 'NOLES!!! Weather comment []5:16:10 PM   trackback []

Hurricane Ivan Update 101100L At 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Ivan was 155 miles southeast of Kingston Jamaica.  Ivan is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph and winds of  145 mph.  Since my last update, the minimum central pressure has risen to  934 mb (27.58") Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 33 Ivan is not looking as well organized as it had been earlier.  However, it is expected to strenghten a little en route to Cuba.  After that, upper level winds are expected to be somewhat unfavorable in the Gulf of Mexico.  The extended track forecast remains uncertain. Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 33 I'll post some commentary this afternoon after classes.  In the meantime, check out Fresh Bilge for some good reading.   Weather comment []11:02:27 AM   trackback []