Wednesday, September 15, 2004



They were for having classes before they were against it



In my 5 PM post, I mentioned that classes were on for tomorrow.  Well, at 6:35 PM the decision was reversed:

Late today Leon County reversed plans and announced it was closing for business on Thursday, and the City of Tallahassee and Florida State University have followed suit. 

Not much of a day off as I'll be doing homework for the better part of the day, but it is a useful break from classes.  Plus, I can stay up tonight and watch Ivan come ashore...

Florida State, Weather comment []11:42:49 PM   trackback [] 


Hurricane Ivan Update 152300L



At 10 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline and moving slightly east of north at 12 miles per hour.  Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 933 millibars.


No singificant changes in strength are forecast before landfall. 

The significant problem after landfall continues to be the problem of it stalling over the southern Appalachians. 

The first Americans to die at the hands of Ivan did so in Florida.

Tornados spawned by Hurricane Ivan kill two in Panama City area

...

Two people were killed and others were trapped in rubble from their damaged homes as three tornadoes roared through the Panama City area, authorities said. Rescuers were digging through rubble searching for trapped survivors, officials said.

"We have a report from a deputy that it looks like a war zone," Bay County sheriff's spokeswoman Ruth Sasser said.

The tornadoes damaged a firehouse in downtown Panama City. Sasser said there were "numerous" injuries in the city's Allenton neighborhood and in Panama City Beach. Officials were awaiting reports after tornadoes touched down in the neighboring communities of Callaway and Parker. Rescue efforts were complicated by downed power lines and toppled trees, she said.

...

It is the night of the tornados in Florida.  The current set of tornado warnings show ones issued by National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Tallahassee, Tampa, and Jacksonville.  A few of these were reported by trained Skywarn spotters. 

Certainly a night that the people on duty at the Tallahassee office won't ever forget as the stream of warnings has been near continous for several hours now.

I had spent the past few hours doing synoptic meteorology homework, so I don't have much insight on the events of the past few hours.  Alan Sullivan has had his usual outstanding posts this evening and shares the concern I expressed last night for Mobile and Brendan Loy has been watching The Weather Channel.  Check them out to fill in the gap.




Weather comment []11:39:41 PM   trackback [] 


Hurricane Ivan Update 151700L



At 4 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 125 miles south of the Alabama coastline.  Movement is to the north at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph.  Hurricane force winds extend 105 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 295 miles from the center.  Minimum central pressure has fallen to 933 millibars.

It looks like Ivan is responding to the warm eddy of water it's been passing over.  The expectation though, is that there is no net change in strength before landfall.  Direction of motion is set at 350 degrees and the models are in agreement with each other in the short term, but disagree over the path for the three days after landfall.

Several tornado warnings have been issued in the past few hours by the National Weather Service offices in Mobile and Tallahassee.  Hitherto, all of the warnings have been on the basis of doppler radar, (vice eyewitness).  A tornado watch is in effect for most of southern Alabama and northwest Florida and extreme southwest Georgia until 2 AM CDT.

University students in Tallahassee hoping for school closure came away disapointed.  For a very short time, the 1 PM update displayed that the university was going to be closed.  That was quickly replaced with a 'school is open for the time being, next update is at 5 PM' sort of message.  This apparent error sparked rumors that the 5 PM announcement would state that the university would be closed. It was also noticed that public schools in this county (Leon) and all surrounding counties (Gadsden, Wakulla, and Jefferson) will be closed tomorrow.  Despite this glimmer of hope for students, the latest update from FSU reads thusly:

Florida State University will join state government, Leon County and City of Tallahassee offices in opening for business on Thursday, September 16, 2004.  Tallahassee continues to be an official place of refuge for those being evacuated, and weather conditions here will not be as adverse as those being reported on the Weather Channel, according to the National Weather Service.


Weather comment []5:15:42 PM   trackback [] 


A few quick Ivan notes...



... before the 5 PM update comes out...

  • As Brendan Loy and Alan Sullivan have noted, Ivan's looking a lot better (or worse, depending on perspective) on satellite in the past few hours.
  • Looking at the water vapor loop, one can see that southwesterly flow has progressed east into Louisana. This pretty makes it impossible for Ivan to meander any further west. New Orleans is therefore spared the worst.

  • This buoy 64 nautical miles south of Dapuphin Island, Alabama recorded a 15 meter swell earlier this afternoon. That's in the neighborhood of 50 feet! Observations from buoy 42040 . Latest buoy plot from the area. When looking at the plot, the number in the middle of the set of numbers to the left of the circle is wave height in meters (1 meter roughly equals 3.25 feet).
  • Forward motion seems to have slowed in the past three hours or so. Probably a temporary decrease, but something to keep an eye on as it would change the point where the turn to the northeast occurs.



Weather comment []4:53:51 PM   trackback [] 


Hurricane Ivan Update 151100L



At 10 AM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 235 miles south of Mobile Alabama, moving to the north at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are  135 mph and minimum central pressure is 939 millbars.  Hurricane force winds extend up to 105  miles from the center and tropical storm forces winds extend up to 290miles from the center.


After analayzing the potential factors, the forecaster anticipates slight weakening before landfall but expects Ivan to remain a category three storm through landfall.  Forward motion is set at 350 degrees.  The only change in the track forecast is a a slight advancement in the timing. 

Hurricane Alley has a good graphic displaying the wind fields.

Weather comment []10:58:05 AM   trackback [] 


Hurricane Ivan Update 150800L



At 7 AM CDT, the center of hurricane Ivan was 180 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and moving north-northwest at 12 mph.  Maximum sustained winds remain 140 mph and minimum central pressure is 939 millibars. 

Huricane force winds extend outwards up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 260 miles.

Looks like Ivan is on track so far.

Conditions are going to downhill quickly on the Gulf Coast.  At this moment, Mobile radar shows a wall of rain about to come ashore.

Weather comment []8:11:48 AM   trackback [] 


No-win situation?



After typing my last post, I started thinking about the situation a little deeper.  It has left me a bit depressed. 

In my previous post, I tended to imply that a miss of New Orleans would be a happy ending for all involved. 

The problem is that a landfall that puts the storm surge into Mobile Bay would be quite ugly as well.  Not quite is epically disasterous as the situation New Orleans would be in, but still pretty ugly. 

In 1998, category two Hurricane Georges made landfall near Biloxi and put 8.5 feet of storm surge into downtown Mobile. 

In 1979  Frederic came in as a borderline category four just west of Mobile and was the greatest natural disaster in Alabama history.

For anyone in coastal Alabama, Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana thinking about staying put, take a look at the pictures from Frederic and reconsider (and if you know anyone in that situation, please talk them into leaving).  Storm surge is deadly. 

I take back what I said earlier.  Don't pray for New Orleans.  Pray for the entire Gulf Coast and its residents.

Weather comment []12:31:15 AM   trackback []