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Wednesday, September 15, 2004 |
In my 5 PM post, I mentioned that classes were on for tomorrow. Well, at 6:35 PM the decision was reversed: Late today Leon County reversed plans and announced it was closing for
business on Thursday, and the City of Tallahassee and Florida State University
have followed suit.
Not much of a day off as I'll be doing homework for the better part of
the day, but it is a useful break from classes. Plus, I can stay
up tonight and watch Ivan come ashore...Florida State, Weather comment []11:42:49 PM   ![]() |
At 10 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline and moving slightly east of north at 12 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 933 millibars. The significant problem after landfall continues to be the problem of it stalling over the southern Appalachians. The first Americans to die at the hands of Ivan did so in Florida. Tornados spawned by Hurricane Ivan kill two in Panama City area
It is the night of the tornados in Florida. The current set of tornado warnings
show ones issued by National Weather Service Forecast Offices in
Tallahassee, Tampa, and Jacksonville. A few of these were
reported by trained Skywarn spotters. ... Two people were killed and others were trapped in rubble from their damaged homes as three tornadoes roared through the Panama City area, authorities said. Rescuers were digging through rubble searching for trapped survivors, officials said. "We have a report from a deputy that it looks like a war zone," Bay County sheriff's spokeswoman Ruth Sasser said. The tornadoes damaged a firehouse in downtown Panama City. Sasser
said there were "numerous" injuries in the city's Allenton neighborhood
and in Panama City Beach. Officials were awaiting reports after
tornadoes touched down in the neighboring communities of Callaway and
Parker. Rescue efforts were complicated by downed power lines and
toppled trees, she said. ... Certainly a night that the people on duty at the Tallahassee office won't ever forget as the stream of warnings has been near continous for several hours now. I had spent the past few hours doing synoptic meteorology homework, so I don't have much insight on the events of the past few hours. Alan Sullivan has had his usual outstanding posts this evening and shares the concern I expressed last night for Mobile and Brendan Loy has been watching The Weather Channel. Check them out to fill in the gap. Weather comment []11:39:41 PM   ![]() |
At 4 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 125 miles south of the Alabama coastline. Movement is to the north at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph. Hurricane force winds extend 105 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 295 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure has fallen to 933 millibars. It looks like Ivan is responding to the warm eddy of water it's been passing over. The expectation though, is that there is no net change in strength before landfall. Direction of motion is set at 350 degrees and the models are in agreement with each other in the short term, but disagree over the path for the three days after landfall. Several tornado warnings have been issued in the past few hours by the National Weather Service offices in Mobile and Tallahassee. Hitherto, all of the warnings have been on the basis of doppler radar, (vice eyewitness). A tornado watch is in effect for most of southern Alabama and northwest Florida and extreme southwest Georgia until 2 AM CDT. University students in Tallahassee hoping for school closure came away disapointed. For a very short time, the 1 PM update displayed that the university was going to be closed. That was quickly replaced with a 'school is open for the time being, next update is at 5 PM' sort of message. This apparent error sparked rumors that the 5 PM announcement would state that the university would be closed. It was also noticed that public schools in this county (Leon) and all surrounding counties (Gadsden, Wakulla, and Jefferson) will be closed tomorrow. Despite this glimmer of hope for students, the latest update from FSU reads thusly: Florida State University will join state government, Leon County and
City of Tallahassee offices in opening for business on Thursday, September
16, 2004. Tallahassee continues to be an official place of refuge
for those being evacuated, and weather conditions here will not be as adverse
as those being reported on the Weather Channel, according to the National
Weather Service. Weather comment []5:15:42 PM   ![]() |
... before the 5 PM update comes out...
Weather comment []4:53:51 PM   ![]() |
At 10 AM CDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 235 miles south of Mobile Alabama, moving to the north at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 135 mph and minimum central pressure is 939 millbars. Hurricane force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm forces winds extend up to 290miles from the center. After analayzing the potential factors, the forecaster anticipates slight weakening before landfall but expects Ivan to remain a category three storm through landfall. Forward motion is set at 350 degrees. The only change in the track forecast is a a slight advancement in the timing. Hurricane Alley has a good graphic displaying the wind fields. Weather comment []10:58:05 AM   ![]() |
At 7 AM CDT, the center of hurricane Ivan was 180 miles south-southeast of the Mississippi River and moving north-northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain 140 mph and minimum central pressure is 939 millibars. Huricane force winds extend outwards up to 105 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out up to 260 miles. Looks like Ivan is on track so far. Conditions are going to downhill quickly on the Gulf Coast. At this moment, Mobile radar shows a wall of rain about to come ashore. Weather comment []8:11:48 AM   ![]() |
After typing my last post, I started thinking about the situation a little deeper. It has left me a bit depressed. In my previous post, I tended to imply that a miss of New Orleans would be a happy ending for all involved. The problem is that a landfall that puts the storm surge into Mobile Bay would be quite ugly as well. Not quite is epically disasterous as the situation New Orleans would be in, but still pretty ugly. In 1998, category two Hurricane Georges made landfall near Biloxi and put 8.5 feet of storm surge into downtown Mobile. In 1979 Frederic came in as a borderline category four just west of Mobile and was the greatest natural disaster in Alabama history. For anyone in coastal Alabama, Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana thinking about staying put, take a look at the pictures from Frederic and reconsider (and if you know anyone in that situation, please talk them into leaving). Storm surge is deadly. I take back what I said earlier. Don't pray for New Orleans. Pray for the entire Gulf Coast and its residents. Weather comment []12:31:15 AM   ![]() |