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Sunday, September 12, 2004 |
| At 11 PM EDT, Hurricane Ivan was 175 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds have risen to 160 mph and minimum central pressure is 917 mb (27.08") Yes kids, Ivan is a category five hurricane yet again. "THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR IVAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MOST PROBLEMATIC" due to a lack of consensus of how much of a role shear will play in weakening Ivan. Heading for the storm is set at 300 degrees. The dynamics of the forecast track reasoning remains unchanged, althought the track is shifted slightly westward once again. I've nothing new to say. The drama continues as none of the suspense regarding the future track of Ivan is relieved. Weather comment []10:56:56 PM  trackback []
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| At 8 PM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ivan was 210 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba and moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Winds remain at 150 mph and minimum central pressure dropped 1 millibar to 915 mb. I'm not plotting it precisely, but based off rough observation, I would say that Ivan has been moving just west of northwest (310 degrees or so) for the past 6 hours. Late this afternoon, I was reasonably certain that the 11 PM advisory would see a significant shift to the west. Now, I am not so sure as I have seen for myself what the NHC is using for its reasoning. It is possible that the humans are ahead of the computers in processing info, as the recent trend indicated by the upper air observations wouldn't have made it into the 12Z model runs. As I said in my previous post, it will be interesting to see if there's any shifts in the evening model runs. There are three possibilities at the moment. One is that the humans are completely wrong, and that the ridge is staying as is. If that's the case, then the models are dead on with their track and the humans' forecast is way too far east. The second possibility is that the humans are correct in noting the trend, but are overestimating its impact. Third, the humans could be dead on and the models are wrong, with the reverse implications of the first scenario. Interesting stuff. Earlier, I was going to say that I anticipated the NHC shifting its track to indicate a Pensacola landfall. I also was going to unequviocally shift my unoffical 'watch areas' to the west a fair bit. At the moment, due to the uncertainty in my head, I would push the western boundary to Biloxi, but keep the eastern edge at Panama City. Stay tuned for sure as this plays out.... Weather comment []8:31:32 PM trackback []
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| I had been keeping an eye on the frequency of upper air observations, but just when I took my eye off it, they started doing what I had been looking for. Readers of this blog during Frances will remember how the National Weather Service doubled the frequency of upper-air balloon launches from once every twelve hours to once every six hours to try to get a better grip on what the state of the ridge was. The situation has repeated itself as stations started taking six hour observations starting at 18Z yesterday. It appears that it is these upper-air observations from the Gulf Coast, (along with observing the flow on satellite imagery) that are the basis for the NHC's statements of the ridge eroding. It will be interesting to see if and how the models react to this new data. As it stands now, the NHC forecast is significantly to the east of model guidance. Went shopping with my sister at the Target in Tallahassee and later at the grocery store affectionately known to Florida State students as Club Publix. At Target there was a noticable dent in supplies of bottled water and D batteries. No such dent noticable at the Publix; in fact, there wasn't even any kind of dent in the beer supply. Weather comment []8:06:21 PM trackback []
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| At 2 PM EDT, Ivan was 60 miles west of Grand Cayman, moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 150 mph and pressure is up to 922 mb (27.20"). Met Ryan and Fran of Weatherbug at the airport. They are apparently going to be in town for the next few days (depending of course, on what Ivan does and what the boss man wants them to be doing). Looking at the 12Z model runs individually, there seems to be a bit more spread in them this morning then there had been in the last two runs. Nevertheless, I repeat my statement of yesterday that people from Mobile to Panama City should be preparing for Ivan intently and people in adjacent areas (such as myself) should be preparing as appropriate and keeping a close look on the storm. Of course, local authorities should be the ones that people receive their guidance from. What I offer here is merely my personal unofficial advice... Weather comment []2:07:46 PM trackback []
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| ...before I head to the airport again. Last night/this morning, I was looking at the historical tracks for storms at Ivan's position. All but one hit Mexico/Texas. The exception ocurred in September of 1917 when a category three hurricane hit Pensacola Naval Aeronautical Station (later Naval Air Station Pensacola, home of the Blue Angels) and caused 5 deaths in Crestview. While looking for info on that, I found this nifty link: A History of Hurricanes in the Western Florida Panhandle 1599-1999, put together by a staff meteorologist at Eglin Air Force Base. The summary: 52
hurricanes and tropical storms have passed within 60 miles of Eglin
AFB since 1886. 27 were hurricanes. Of these, 10 were Category 1 storms
(winds 74-95 MPH), 5 were Category 2 (96-110 MPH), 6
were Category 3 (111-130 MPH), 6 were Category 4 (131-155 MPH). Since 1886,
no Category 5 (156 MPH or more) hurricanes have passed within 60 miles
of the base. Weather comment []12:01:17 PM trackback []
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| At 11 am Hurricane Ivan was 30 miles southwest of Grand Cayman, moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain 155 mph and minimum central pressure is estimated to be 919 mb (27.14") The track and intensity forecasts remain essentially unchanged. I tried to meet the Weatherbug blogger at the airport this morning, but didn't see him. Turns out his flight was delayed. That explains that. Weather comment []11:16:33 AM trackback []
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| A quick link dump of stories about Ivan and related subects this morning... Hurricane Ivan hits Caymans (BBC) Ivan may hit panhandle this week (Tallahassee Democrat) It's been a busy two months for Florida's state meteorologist (Tallahassee Democrat) Restoring power to the city (Tallahassee Democrat) Panhandle not taking any chances (Pensacola News-Journal) Evacuation orders depend on path, strength of hurricane (Pensacola News-Journal) Weather comment []10:46:08 AM trackback []
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| At 5 AM EDT, Ivan was 55 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, moving to the west-northwest at 9 mph. Winds have fluctuated down to 155 mph and minimum central pressure has risen to 918 mb (27.11") There could be another eyewall replacement cycle in progress. The intensity forecast strengthens Ivan in the near term, but weakens it before final landfall. Track forecast is relatively unchanged. The northern half of the storm can be seen on Cuban radar (Cienfuegos station) at the moment. Weather comment []6:00:10 AM trackback []
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© Copyright
2004
Charles Fenwick
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Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:34 PM .
Last update: 10/2/2004; 11:03:34 PM .
