One other story that I don't see most news sites covering is the real estate price bubble that's in the very early stages of bursting. Some articles, like this one on MSNBC, play lip service to the idea that the real estate market is about to take a tumble. I think the big story for consumers in 2003 will be real estate values. Here in Silicon Valley we're seeing huge downward pressure. We just visited a place for sale. The owners are "motivated" the real estate dweeb said. The house had been on the market for two weeks. The sellers were just about to close on another house. They didn't have a single offer received yet.

Now, for many of you that might sound like a pretty normal market. But Silicon Valley hasn't been a normal market for five years now. When I bought my house three years ago, it was common to be competing against 20 other people in the first 24 hours a house would be on the market. Keep in mind that interest rates are at the lowest point in 40 years. The market should be going freaking nuts. It's not. Why? Jobs. Economy. It all sucks. People are unable to buy (or, unwilling).

Just wait until interest rates go up noticeably (more than a point). The market will fall apart. I expect we'll see prices drop by 10% or more (my uneducated guess is 15% or more in the overheated Silicon Valley market). One datapoint: the folks selling the townhome are asking for $458,000 for a three-bedroom, 1300-square-foot townhome with a tiny patio. No yard. No white picket fence. If you bought that today, I believe that in a year it'll be worth about $45,000 less than it is today. Now, if you're like me, and you need to put down $20,000 for a downpayment (or, if you put down $90,000 like you're supposed to to get the lowest interest rates) you'll see your investment disappear. What happens if you get laid off in a year and can't make payments? That's right. The bank takes everything. I think we're gonna hear about a few of these types of sob stories over the next year.

I continue to question the news judgment over at tech news sites. The port closure is more important to most American families than whether or not we bomb Iraq yet it has been a minor link on most news sites. Well, MSNBC finally stepped up to the plate and made it the top story. Of course, the problem with the port closures is that it's a slow-moving story. Not much new happening every day. Certainly not like a sniper shooting people. What's a bigger story? Six people dead, or $50 billion evaporated by a labor fight? As one of my journalism instructors used to say "if it bleeds, it leads."

Ultra-Cheap Computers: A Threat To Microsoft? [Windows Informant] My comment: it's a threat to the entire PC industry as we know it. How anyone can stay in business selling a $200 PC is beyond me. Certainly you won't see much, if any, innovation at that price point. Companies simply can't afford to keep many, if any, employees if they are only making $1 per unit. Support? Yeah, right. At least not for free. Moore's law does hurt suppliers and Microsoft will need to react to this trend sometime.

Transmeta chief: 'We're years ahead of Intel'. ZDNet Oct 8 2002 12:55PM ET... [Meerkat: An Open Wire Service]My comment: hey, there's a reason NEC chose Transmeta for the PowerMate eco, which just won PC Magazine's editor's choice award.

Welcome to the PocketPC Price War. My analysis? Dell is going after HP/Compaq in a big way. Will it hurt NEC too? Yes, but we don't sell enough PocketPCs to make either of these guys anxious. But, damn, a $199 PocketPC? Can we say "Palm is dead" yet?

Microsoft gives sneak peek at Jupiter, Greenwich technologies. MEC keynote outlines e-business server, IM road maps [InfoWorld: Top News]

Ahh, I see that Alwin was refering to containerized shipping and how that new shipping technique effectively killed 90% of the jobs in the shipping industry. Hell, every industry goes through paradigm shifts that cause job dislocations. There used to be hundreds of thousands of people working on building railroads. Do we care that railroads aren't being built anymore? I don't remember anyone saying you're guaranteed a job in this country. Some people think the world owes them something. Well, out here in the real world you don't get entitlements. I look at the economy more wholistically than if one union is doing well or not. This union is holding us hostage. Tell me again. How is this union different from Al Queda?

Alwin Hawkins defends the union that is holding our economy hostage. He asks me and John Robb to look at the facts.

OK, I'm looking. I see a union who says they just want union jobs protected. Sorry. I don't sympathize with that view anymore. My job isn't protected. None of my friends' jobs are protected. Is the management correct here? Seeing how this union plays, I'm more on their side then the union's side. The union forced the lockout to take place. Alwin says that cargo was still moving. Well, from accounts I've listened to here in the Bay Area, the union was playing slowdown games to the point that cargo wasn't moving in some locations. Is some movement better than none? I don't think so. Why? Because it keeps the public's view off of this union. Alwin also says that this union has lost 90% of their jobs to technology. Can you please provide proof of that? I can't find such a finding. I see that Oakland has a bustling port. Someone's working there for pretty decent money. Am I wrong? Tell me the other side. I'm a worker, though, who's job is being threatened and I don't have a union to protect me. Update: over on John Robb's comments someone suggested that companies should just buy out the workers. Idealic solution, but one that won't ever happen, I'm afraid. Too easily abused, for one.

ITxpo: Barrett optimistic about IT recovery. Companies must invest in technology to remain competitive, Intel CEO says [InfoWorld: Top News] Ahh, that's true Mr. Barrett, but tell me again why most companies need to buy Pentium IV machines for their workers?

Are you a network administrator dealing with Microsoft-centric networks? Then this FAQ might be for you.

Dooce has a "FFF" list. Sorry, you'll have to go over and see what a "FFF" list is. I won't tell you mine. My angel might get mad and flutter away. :-)

Um, Dave and a reader are arguing whether Google News or a news aggregator is better. They both are missing the point. They are different and bring different results. I love both. I especially like the Google News search features if I'm looking for news on a particular story (for instance, recently I searched for news on PocketPCs and Google brought back a wealth of info -- my news aggregator doesn't do that). On the other hand, my news aggregator makes it possible to read interesting news from people that I'd read anyway. Like Dave and Doc and Dan. It saves me clicking on a favorites list and brings all their stuff to me in one long page. Awesome too! It's one of the best features of Radio UserLand. Plus I can post my favorite things out of my news aggregator and comment on them. I can't do that over at Google.

Pud over at FuckedCompany.com has opened an ISP shopping service named Bizient. Pretty cool if you're looking for an Internet Service Provider.

Hey Rageboy. There's more than one angel. I'm lucky enough to know an angel myself. Of course, my angel just told me she loves Rageboy's writings. Hmmm.

Ahh, my co-workers just got back from Microsoft (there was an OEM meeting there last week). Things that caught their eyes? The new Office 11 (rumored to go into beta next week) and the new Windows Media 9 Plus Pack (or something like that). Hopefully the rest of us mortals will get a look soon. Something else I heard: only seven percent of computer users with a computer that is capable of running Windows XP has been upgraded to XP so far. Geesh, that means there's a ton of people running Windows 95, 98 and ME. I feel sorry for them. Crash, crash, crash.

My son's mother's computer died last night (aka the ex-wife). Here's a moral question for you: how entitled is she to technical support? After all, the computer is used 30% of the time by my son Patrick (he lives with her 70% of the time). It's a tough question, clouded by the fact that she continually derided me for being a geek and spending too much time on the computer and the fact that I'm starting a new life with my angel (who does appreciate my computer support and skills). Well, now, her computer support geek ain't there and the thing is dead (sounds like a hard drive died, or maybe a bios problem that I can't fix over the telephone). Another example of "watch what you wish for cause you just might get it." Heh. So, should I be a nice guy and fix it (it'll take a minimum of two hours, and if it needs a new hard drive, it'll need to be completely reloaded which could take four to eight hours)? Should I charge her a fee (after all, she's charging me a pretty penny for alimony and child support)? Should I make her get support elsewhere? I'm leaning toward making her get support elsewhere, although that means that Patrick probably won't have a computer to use at his other house.

Ever wonder where your loved ones are when they are on an airplane? Here's an article that reviews flight tracker software. Hey, I want an 'angel' tracker! I always wanna know where my angel is (and I'm sure she'd love to know where I am too, although the fact that I'm blogging makes her happy, I'm sure, just as long as it's not about her). I wonder how I could get her to wear a GPS? Heh.

Oh, I missed Marc Canter's response to my railing on his ideas (it's in the comments). First, the fact that I missed it, shows a weakness with Radio's comment system (I believe that other systems, like the one used by Moveable Type allows the weblog author to get an email everytime a comment is posted. I'd really like that as well). Of course I hope Marc's ideas come to fruition. I'd love an environment that lets me share my life (not just my text) with others and I'm willing to pay for it.

Chris Sells today bemoans the fallout from the IT slump. Well, life is like that. Remember California in the 1850's? We saw tons of people come here to mine gold. When the gold disappeared tons left. But, some didn't. There are still people today mining gold in the Sierras. Personally, my quality of life has done nothing but go down during the latest Internet gold rush. Traffic got a ton worse. The quality of air got worse. Crowding got worse. It takes me 30% longer to get to Yosemite or Tahoe on an average weekend. All the Cherry orchards are now gone. Since the slump began, housing prices have started to fall. Customer service has gotten better in almost every retail outlet I go into. Traffic is better. People are more realistic -- it shows in all the parties I've attended lately. So, to hell with all you IT wannabees. I'm here cause I love technology and what it does for me. Yeah, I need to make a living too, but I don't need to make a killing. I'd much rather that people follow their hearts rather than go for the gold. It works out better for everyone involved if they do that. In the 1850s the gold mining industry was incapable of sustaining long-term careers. So was our IT industry in the 1990s. Now we're in a new era and I'm happy for it, to tell you the truth (although I'm still very scared about where I'll be making my next paycheck).

Yet another week where one union is throwing our economy in the toilet. I wanna protest these jerks, but don't know how to do it. Why don't we go out to the docks on Sunday and protest this union who doesn't give a crap about the rest of us? By the way, their Web site sucks. So typical.