Information theory and
instructional design 
Imagine what this guy would do with the ability to monitor work right down to the keystroke. Networks work both ways. Surveillance of workflow creates the oppportunity for surveillance of workers. Join me if you'd like to discuss the Dark Side as well as the upside of the next phase of eLearning. It's a thorny issue, for the very nature of work is changing. 
The change of venue is nothing, however, compared to the impending change of maestro. Elliott's contract with Advanstar expires soon. Everyone expects him to arise again, taking the Consortium with him, and leaving Advanstar with little to show for the millions it spent for the franchise. ("Those who do not learn the lessons of history...".) It's as if they bought the barber shop but failed to see that without the barber, all you get is an empty room. 
For me, TechLearn has always been Elliott and his entourage. Images pop into my head. Elliott and Cathy personally greeting everyone as they enter Tomorrowland or Main Street for the party. Stan rushing around behind the scenes making things work. Cathy's indefatigable family, the DeMicelis, AnneMarie and the dad and Matt... Elliott's mom, when she was still with us. Jen. Others I can see in my mind's eye but I'm blanking on their names. And the "regulars" like Beth Thomas, Diane Hessan & the SoundBytes, and Wayne Hodgins. These folks create community. In the early days, TechLearn was closer in spirit to Woodstock than to, say, an ASTD conference; we're all in this together, man. 
A lot of you have asked to see the sort of working environment we have here at Gizmodo so I thought I'd share. That's me with the dank 'stache and my body-double on the right. I've got to head into the city later so I thought I'd grow a dupe while I stay here and brain up some more stories. (Thanks, Stx!)Last year this was a great event. They discussed 12 trends. By my count, they went 5 for 12, but had some direct hits that were not obvious last year. This year was less interesting, and very poorly produced.
But anyway, here are the trends with my thoughts as well. Keep in mind these are supposed to come true in the next 2-3 years.
1. Doerr
– NextWeb. See my post on Web 2.0 conference below. General agreement
among the panelists. Doerr singled our Blogging and RSS twice.
Of course I agree, I am betting my career here.
2. Dyson
- Personal Electronic Health Records emerge and create opportunities
for data sharing, protection and search. Panel was skeptical.
This happening in 2-3 years is laughable. When the boomers retire and
taxpayers are hit with the triple whammy (shrinking number of
taxpayers, increased number of retires, and escalating healthcare
costs) maybe there will be enough force to break through the inertia.
We are still 15-30 years away from this happening.
3. McNamee
– There will be no major waves of enterprise technology spending
equivalent to Windows, Y2K or ERP for 5 years. He elaborated to say
that the next big trend will be Web Services, but today we do not even
understand the processes we need to automate. Thus we are in a DIY
period for IT. Investors in public software companies will suffer.
Panel disagreed. Doerr – web services are happing today. Schoendorf –
this is a bullish sign, next 2-3 years will be a golden age.
Disagreeing with McNamee is perilous, but I will. We are through the
dry spell. Companies are looking to IT to drive competitive advantage
and IT is looking to vendors, particularly start-ups. In our corner of
the world, we see revenue being generated and processes being automated
with RSS everyday.
4. Schoendorf
– China is the next global innovator. China is the first big threat to
the quality of life of Silicon Valley. The panel disagreed mostly due
to timing reasons.
I agree strongly. I particularly like the second sentence. Currently
the Valley leads the world in entrepreneurship. As a result, many
people of modest talent and work ethic enjoy a fabulous quality of
life. As China asserts its scale and people advantages, this will
change. To stay on top, leading companies must work with Chinese
nationals, not just to leverage low cost labor, but to do R&D, and
to open a new market. Else our children will inherit a world with the
majority of the global 2000 companies being Chinese companies.
5. Perkins
– Mainstream media and entertainment will relent to the “Open Source
Media Revolution” leading to a mini-boom for content creators, blogging
and social networking tools and application developers. He elaborates
to say that any media company that does not open up to sharing,
collaboration, and transparency will not have consumers trust and will
parish. Panel felt this happened last year.
I agree, but the boom will be in attention paid, not in revenue or profits.
6.
Doerr – Stem Cells will be a medical revolution and California will
lead it. Panel agreed, but felt it will take more than 2-3 years.
I don’t follow this market, but I hope he is right.
7.
Dyson – Cell Phone text messaging will boom in America and be used for
many new applications including personalized marketing and drug
compliance. Panel agreed.
I think SMS text messaging is still too hard. When Treo 600 type
functionality is bundled with service, mobile applications will
explode.
8.
McNamee – Consumer Technology and Content that targets people over 30
will be more successful than products that target younger people. He
sites demographic trends, average iTunes users being over 30, Finding
Nemo being the number one selling DVD and the fact that those under 30
do not buy but share/steal. Panel disagreed. Doerr did a scholarly job
of refuting and Schoendorf noted that globally this is ridiculous.
I disagree that it will be more successful, but it is worth noting that
there are lots of tech savvy folks over 30 for the first time in human
history.
9.
Schoendorf – Digital Living – Throw out your TV, DVDs, CDs and Stereo
because it is all obsolete. From here is will all be stored in one
place and transmitted wirelessly. Panel was mixed. Doerr thinks no one
would trust this job to Windows. Dyson felt sharing will drive this
trend.
I agree, but sadly, my wife doesn’t.
10. Perkins – A cultural move to IT as a utility in computing will keep the IT business growing. Panel agreed.
Obviously the panel has never sold a service to IT. This is a complex
and long term trend that has more to do with the IT department’s
employee incentive system, than to do with technology.
Last year they had audience participation at the end. I wrote down “RSS revolutionizes communication,” They did not read it. But it’s still my top pick. As Dave Winer says, if you don’t have some apprehension about pushing the publish button, you are not doing a good job of blogging. Time will tell who is right.
