2004 Presidential Election
Electoral-vote.com: "Not a lot of change in the state polls right now. I installed new software yesterday to average recent polls per state going back 30 days. There was a create hue and cry that this was a bad thing because the race is in such a state a flux that polls that old are meaningless. In the middle of the day I changed the look-back parameter to 7 days, so now only polls within the past week are used. I agree with many readers that 30 days is too much. If I were a Republican, I would have said 'I am going to stay the course, even though I am wrong.' Fortunately, I am a Democrat so I can flip-flop all I want. Let's see how a 7-day look-back window works. The idea was to prevent the map from changing wildly every day. Averaging introduces some stability, but also introduces lag in responding to current events. Finding the right parameter might be tricky. Unfortunately, the new averaging software had a bad interaction with the software that makes the state graphs and predicted map and being in a big hurry to get it out the door does not help. It is being worked on. I'm sorry (Democrats also apologize when they mess up.)"
Josh Marshall: "Okay, we've now got six new post-debate polls. One shows a very slight Kerry lead: Newsweek (Kerry by +3). Three are basically a tie: Zogby (Bush +1), CNN/USAT/Gallup (Tied), CBS/NYT (Tied). Two show a modest but measurable Bush lead: Pew (Bush +5), ABC/WaPo (Bush +5). We now have enough data to make some general conclusions. Kerry got a big bounce out of the debate. He's now even or close to even with Bush. With Bush as the incumbent and under 50%, that puts him squarely back in the danger zone. But Kerry clearly still has his work cut out for him. The remaining debates are crucial and beating back the Bush campaign's 'Kerry Doctrine' lies is imperative."
Senator John Edwards and Vice President Dick Cheney are debating in prime time tonight. Here's an article introducing the debate from the Denver Post [October 5, 2004, "VP debate promises high contrast, higher stakes"]. Here's the pre-game coverage from the AP via the Rocky [October 5, 2004, "Cheney, Edwards to meet in only debate"].
TalkLeft: "Tapped got a copy of a talking points memo generated by the Republican Policy Committee with some likely talking points Dick Cheney will rely on in Tuesday night's debate."
John Kerry is hunkered down in Colorado preparing for Friday's Town Hall Meeting with President Bush. The President also plans a stop in Colorado next Monday, according to the Denver Post [October 5, 2004, "Kerry, Bush take another swing for Colo. voters"]. We are rather humbled by all of the attention from the presidential candidates.
Update: Taegan Goddard: "The new American Research Group poll has Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush, 48% to 45%. The new Fox News poll shows the reverse, with Bush leading Kerry, 48% to 45%. Here are some of the latest state polls: New Jersey - Kerry 50, Bush 45 (Survey USA); Florida - Bush 51, Kerry 46 (Survey USA); Florida - Bush 51, Kerry 47 (Rasmussen); Nevada - Bush 50, Kerry 46 (Survey USA); New Hampshire - Bush 50, Kerry 45 (UNH)."
Update: American Progress Action Fund: "What Cheney Will Say ... What You Should Know."
6:35:11 AM 
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