2004 Presidential Election
President Bush was in Colorado yesterday, according to the Denver Post [October 26, 2004, "The Greeley stumpede"]. From the article, "Two weeks after flying in for rallies at Red Rocks Amphitheatre and Colorado Springs, the president returned to Colorado to speak to an estimated 8,200 supporters at Greeley's Island Grove Events Center. He then left for three campaign events in Iowa and Wisconsin. 'I'm told the last sitting president to visit Greeley was Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who came right before he won his second term,' Bush told the cheering crowd. 'With your help, history will be repeated.'" Here's the coverage from the Rocky Mountain News [October 26, 2004, "Fired up for Bush"].
Ed Quillen writes about John Kerry in his column in today's Denver Post [October 26, 2004, "Lesson in political courage"]. According to Quillen, "There's a contrast in political courage. A dozen years ago, Kerry was willing to follow the facts even though they led to some of the biggest names in his own party. So far, Bush hasn't mustered up enough backbone to confront Pat Robertson."
Here's an article about local Republicans crossing over to support Democrats this year from the Rocky Mountain News [October 26, 2004, "Republicans gather to bash Bush"].
Taegan Goddard: "A better Electoral College prediction?"
Electoral-vote.com: "The race is tightening. Six new polls in Florida show Kerry leading in 1 poll, Bush leading in 3 polls, and two being exact ties. Excluding the Gallup poll for the moment, the average of the other five polls (Insider Advantage, Rasmussen, Strategic Vision, Survey USA, and Zogby) is Kerry 47% and Bush 48%, a statistical tie. The Gallup poll shows Bush ahead 51% to 42%, giving Bush a lead far outside the margin of error. Could Gallup be right and everyone else wrong? Who knows, but remember that in 2000 Gallup was way off, greatly underestimating Gore's vote. I'm inclined to believe the other five and say Florida is tied. Three new polls in Ohio show a statistical dead heat there too. When many polls for the same state come in on the same day, the rule is the poll with the most recent middle date wins, with ties being broken in favor of the shortest one. The first entry for each state in the Polling data file listed next to the map shows the one used on the map."
"A new poll in Nebraska answers that age-old question: could Nebraska split its votes in the electoral college with a resounding: NO! Bush has huge leads in all three congressional districts. Similarly, Kerry is way ahead in both of Maine's congressional districts and the Colorado referendum is behind. Looks like it is going to be winner-take-all in every state."
"The future belongs to the young. And maybe the election, too. Gallup did a survey among first time voters and determined that they prefer Kerry to Bush by a huge margin, 50% to 35%. First time voters are primarily in the 18-29 year age range. This is the same population that may have been undersampled in the polls because many of them have only a cell phone and no landline. Zogby's tracking poll, which breaks down the results by demographic group, shows a similar result. Young (18-29) voters have markedly different preferences than the population as a whole. In six of the ten states surveyed, Kerry leads by double digits. These are Colorado (32%), Florida (22%), New Mexico (28%), Pennsylvania (15%), Wisconsin (16%), and Michigan (32%). In Nevada Kerry's lead is 8%. Bush leads among younger voters in two states: Iowa (4%) and Minnesota (20%). The latter number defies all reason. I wonder if it was a typo. Maybe if enough people ask Zogby to double check this, we'll find out. But the conclusion is clear: if younger voters break with tradition and actually vote in large numbers this time, it could swing the election."
Matthew Gross: "ABC News/Washington Post: Kerry 49, Bush 48."
Taegan Goddard: "Here are the latest tracking polls: Reuters/Zogby: Bush +3% (updated 9 am ET), TIPP: Bush +7% (updated 9 am ET), Rasmussen: Kerry +2% (updated 12 pm ET), ABC News/Washington Post: Kerry +1% (updated 5 pm ET). Here are some notable state polls: Pennsylvania - Kerry 49, Bush 44 (Keystone); Florida - Kerry 46, Bush 46 (Insider Advantage); Florida - Bush 51, Kerry 42 (Gallup); Florida - Kerry 50, Bush 48 (Survey USA); Florida - Kerry 48, Bush 48 (Rasmussen); Arizona - Bush 47, Kerry 42 (KAET-TV)."
Josh Marshall: "New LA Times poll: dead even at 48%."
Update: Andrew Sullivan: "Who is the lesser of two risks?"
6:46:10 AM 
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