2004 Presidential Election
Electoral-vote.com: "Today's harvest is 39 polls in 18 states. In most states the winner didn't change, but we have motion in two key states. The most recent poll in Ohio, Zogby's tracking poll, puts Kerry a tad ahead there, 46% to 45%, well within the margin of error. Other Ohio polls are mixed. Rasmussen's tracking poll puts Bush 4% ahead but the LA Times poll puts Kerry 4% ahead. Let's call Ohio a tie. Which way it goes will almost assuredly depend on the turnout Tuesday, especially among younger voters. Could OSU elect the next president? It is not out of the question."
"The other state where we have a change is Michigan. According to the latest poll there (Zogby's tracking poll) Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each. However, two other polls (Rasmussen and Mitchell Research put Kerry ahead by 6% and 1%, respectively). All in all, by gaining Ohio and having Michigan be tied, Kerry makes a net gain and now leads in the electoral college, but neither candidate has the required 270 electoral votes it takes to win..."
"Today's Washington Post has an excellent story dealing with the issue of whether the polls are accurate. The basic problem is that the vast majority of people refuse to participate, so the sample is no longer random. Surveying mostly elderly, lonely, or bored people can bias the results. The Post reports that one caller apparently was so fed up with telemarketeers and pollsters that he attached a device to the telephone that made such a loud noise it damaged the pollster's eardrum. Even response rates for exit polls on election day have dropped to 50%. This information goes a long way to explaining why the polls are so erratic this year. But in all fairness, the final 2000 polls weren't so hot either. Eleven of the 15 national polls just before the election predicted Bush would win the popular vote by a margin of 2% to 6%. Ultimately, Gore won it by 0.5%."
TalkLeft: "he Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has re-polled more than 500 voters who were undecided in September. More leaned towards Bush than Kerry. Now, they are evenly split. By a three to one margin, they said John Kerry did better than Bush in the debates."
This flash piece is hilarious but over the line. Warning: The sentiment is anti-administration.
Taegan Goddard: "President Bush 'is wrapping up his reelection bid as he began it, on the attack,' the Boston Globe reports. 'But political scientists note that while Bush's campaign strategy might help fire up supporters in regions of the country where he is popular, it might not be having as powerful an effect in all-important battleground states, such as Florida and Ohio.'"
"Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register notes that Sen. John Kerry 'turned sharply from the bruising attacks on' Bush's 'conduct of the military occupation of Iraq and instead offered a hopeful appeal to independents and Republicans with just six days until the election.'"
7:32:59 AM 
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