2004 Presidential Election
The Denver Post editorial staff is urging voters to consider the possible makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court when casting a vote for President this year [October 20, 2004, "High court's future hangs on the election"]. From the editorial, "Court succession is rarely mentioned on the campaign trail, but voters would be wise to ponder how the composition of the court could influence the next generation. The makeup of the current court has not changed in a decade - it is the longest the nine-member body has been intact since the 1820s...Consider the actuarial realities: Chief Justice William Rehnquist just turned 80. John Paul Stevens is 84. Sandra Day O'Connor, 74, has survived breast cancer. Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 71, had colon cancer. Of the remaining five justices, only Clarence Thomas is under 60. The last addition to the court came when President Clinton nominated Stephen Breyer in 1994. Justice Breyer is now 66 and has served for a decade. Federal judges are confirmed for life terms. The current court leans conservative, with seven of the nine justices appointed by Republican presidents. O'Connor has often crossed over to cast key swing votes on a variety of cases, like the Clean Air Act, rights for the disabled and the landmark decision that upheld affirmative action in college admissions...Bush has sent signals about the types of people he wants on the court. He most admires Justices Antonin Scalia and Thomas, the two most conservative members of the court. During his first term, he appointed Alabama Attorney General William Pryor and J. Leon Holmes of Arkansas to the federal bench. Pryor would criminalize abortion and homosexuality. Holmes has said that wives should be subordinate to their husbands and that pregnancy from rape happens as often as 'snowfall in Miami.' Holmes says his personal beliefs will not affect his conduct as a judge...Kerry said the mark of a good justice is 'when you're reading ... their opinion, you can't tell if it's written by a man or a woman, a liberal or a conservative, a Muslim, a Jew, or a Christian.' He has indicated he would seek moderate nominees, and in the final presidential debate said he would not appoint anyone to the high court who would overturn Roe vs. Wade."
Both presidential campaigns think they know how to win Colorado according to the Rocky Mountain News [October 20, 2004, "Planning for victory"]. From the article, "Now's the time for President Bush and John Kerry to step up and snag Colorado's electoral votes - and their top strategists have nailed plans to do it. Democrats, surprised to be alive in Colorado in this presidential race, see a path to an upset. Kerry's senior strategist says it rests on economic appeals, wooing swing voters, driving electoral newcomers to the polls and energizing a melting pot of hard-core supporters that includes Hispanics, working women, blacks and veterans. Republicans, who say they've known all along that the state would be close, are focused on holding what they believe is a small - but big enough - lead in Colorado from now until Election Day."
TalkLeft: "In a huge win for grass-roots activism, Sinclair Broadcasting has issued a statement in response to demands made by its shareholders in a letter underwritten by Media Matters, that it will not air the entire anti-Kerry film Stolen Honor without fair time for reply on the eve of the election."
Electoral-vote.com: "Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%."
"But there are other polls today as well. A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%. On the other hand, Survey USA has Kerry ahead 49% to 47%. All in all, Ohio is a complete tossup at the moment; it could go either way. My rule is still: most recent poll (based on the middle date) wins, with ties resolved in favor of the shortest poll. If two or more polls with the same dates are most recent, they are averaged. Currently, The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll is the most recent by 0.5 day, so it is being used today. The complete list of polls is given at the Polling data link to the right of the map."
"Some people have said I should average over some time interval, but when I did that in early October, there was massive objection to the idea, so I am going to stick with the most recent poll from here to election day. No more discussion. It is the most objective system. But it should be obvious that many states are locked in an exact tie. The get-out-the-vote efforts will be crucial. Rasmussen also shows Bush and Kerry tied in Florida at 47% apiece, again for the first time in weeks. Early voting has already started in Florida and other states. In fact, it is expected that up to a third of all votes may be cast before election day."
I wonder if the President will veto this bill? Thanks to TalkLeft for the link.
Update: This photo hits below the belt. Warning, the sentiment expressed is anti-administration. Thanks to Ed Cone for the link.
Update: John Kerry is coming through Southern Colorado on Saturday according to email from the Colorado campaign. Wow 7:00 a.m. in Pueblo. Good luck with that one.
Update: Taegan Goddard: "Tracking Poll Update: Reuters/Zogby - Kerry 46, Bush 46; Rasmussen - Bush 48, Kerry 47; TIPP - Kerry 45, Bush 45; ABC News/Washington Post: released at 5 p.m. ET."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "A new Harris Interactive poll shows President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry, 48% to 46%, among likely voters. However, a tighter definition of 'likely voters' increases Bush's lead. New polls show that Sen. John Kerry 'appears to have reversed his slide among women who are voters and has taken a lead over' Bush 'in this crucial category,' the New York Times reports. Here are some notable state polls: Wisconsin - Kerry 48, Bush 43 (St. Norbert College); Wisconsin - Kerry 47, Bush 47 (ARG); New Hampshire - Bush 47, Kerry 46 (ARG); New Mexico - Kerry 48, Bush 46 (ARG); Florida - Kerry 45, Bush 44 (University of North Florida); Florida - Bush 48, Kerry 45 (Oralando Sentinel); West Virginia - Bush 47, Kerry 45 (Global Strategy Group)."
Update: Ed Fitzgerald: "The days grow short as the election approaches, and I'm going to try my very best to start presenting this survey of Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast / scoreboard / map sites on a biweekly basis from now on. At the same time, I'll also be tightening up my criteria for how long I'll keep in the survey a site which hasn't been updated. Two weeks is the current allowance, but that will change to 10 days for the next iteration, and then for the next one, one week. Just before the election, I may choose to make it even more restrictive."
6:42:16 AM 
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