 2004 Presidential Election
President Bush leads Senator Kerry 50% to 43% in Colorado, according to the Denver Post [October 31, 2004, "Bush retains his lead in state"]. From the article, "These findings come after unusually strong competition for Colorado. Kerry has been here six times, Bush four, and Vice President Dick Cheney is to be in Colorado Springs on Monday. Waves of surrogate campaigners also have come through the state. Coker theorized that the campaigners might be making Colorado a stop on the way to more hotly contested Western states. Colorado does have a hard- fought battle for a U.S. Senate seat, he added, and the parties don't want to be seen as ignoring the state."
Electoral-vote.com: "It was bound to happen and it happened. Today we have more state polls than there are states. There are 54 new polls in 22 states today. Furthermore, the lead has changed in five states, and all five changes favor Kerry. As a result, Kerry has now passed Bush in the electoral college. If today's results are the final results Wednesday morning, John Kerry will be elected as the 44th President of the United States, with 283 votes in the electoral college to George Bush's 246. But don't count on it. Many of Kerry's leads are razor thin. Counting only the strong + weak states, Bush leads 229 to 196, with 113 electoral votes in the tossup category Kerry's leads in the tossup states mean little to nothing. The turnout Tuesday will determine who wins."
"Let's take a look at what happened state by state. New polls in Iowa, Michigan and New Mexico reverse Bush's previous leads and now favor Kerry by 1% in each case, well within the margin of error (about 4% in most cases). New Hampshire, which had been in the Bush column is now tied at 47% each. Finally, New Jersey is now safely back in the Kerry column with an 8% lead. Kerry retains his lead in Florida and Bush retains his lead in Ohio..."
"As everyone knows, Bush supports amending the constitution to forbid same sex marriages, although he knows full well that this amendment has zero chance in Congress and will be completely forgotten after the election. The purpose of supporting it was to rally the 4 million evangelicals who didn't vote for him last time. It didn't work. The Los Angeles Times reports that he has less support among evangelicals than he had last time. Like other Americans, they are also concerned about health care, jobs and other issues. That's probably why last week and said it was OK with him if the states allow civil unions. In other words, forget the evangelicals and concentrate on the soccer moms in the Midwest who are fairly tolerant of civil unions. Well, that's politics for you..."
"In the event of an attack on the site, please try www.electoral-vote3.com, www.electoral-vote4.com, etc. In the coming days I will update the site multiple times/day. Whenever I change the main site, half a dozen 60 MB files get shipped out. It takes a while so the backups aren't as fresh as the main site, so use the main site unless it becomes unreachable. I just upgraded each of the main servers to 2 GB each. They should be able to handle a thousand requests/sec each now. Just getting those down will require a very large attack. Getting all the servers down will be nearly impossible."
Denver Post: "The editorial board was divided on the issue." [October 28, "Protesters blame Post owner for paper's Bush endorsement"].
Local Blogger, Jeralyn Merritt, was at the Paramount last night for Al Gore's speech to the faithful. She writes, "Also on hand was popular Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, who received a standing ovation from the crowd."
Al Gore was in Denver yesterday, according to the Denver Post [October 31, 2004, "Gore stumps for Kerry at Paramount"]. The last time Coyote Gulch was at the Paramount was for a Bruce Springstein concert.
The Denver Post reports that Vice President Cheney will be hanging out in Colorado Springs tomorrow.
Matthew Gross: "Zogby shows Senator Kerry leading among 18-29 year olds (Kerry 61%-Bush 37%). That age group composed 17% of the electorate in 2000, and was split evenly between Bush and Gore. Based on these numbers, you can swing roughly 1.5 million votes nationally into the Kerry column." You crazy kids 
Taegan Goddard: "The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll 'shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot,' support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. 'Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters.'"
Dave Winer: "Richard Carter via email: 'I think you should stop sitting on the fence and tell us which candidate Scripting News endorses.' Good idea. Scripting News endorses John Kerry for President. To be fair, Richard put a smiley at the end of his request. But I thought it was a good chance to get in another plug for Kerry. I'm reading Seymour Hersh's Chain of Command. I don't think most people know that Bush has thrown out the Geneva Convention for dealing with prisoners of war. We think of ourselves as the good guys, but we're not the good guys now, if we ever were. Bush may make you feel good, but it's not real. And there's a practical side to it. Next time our troops are held prisoner, it would be a stretch to expect they would be treated humanely according to the Geneva Convention. That's one of the reasons we support it, it's a way of protecting our soliders from torture. Also last night on MSNBC, finally saw a recount of the faceoff between Kerry and Nixon in the early 70s. Kerry was proven right. The Calley massacre was uncovered while the controversy was going on, as were the Pentagon Papers. This should have been covered when the Swift Boat ads were running. An amazing lapse in journalism."
Juanita: "That's kinda like Attila the Hun complaining because somebody hunned him." Thanks to NewMexiKen for the link.
Josh Marshall: "Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, just released, shows Kerry 49%, Bush 41%." I'll bet Hellchild is knocking on doors this morning.
Taegan Goddard: "A new Fox News poll shows President Bush's lead slipping to just two points over Sen. John Kerry. Half of those surveyed had the opportunity to hear reports of Osama bin Laden's new video tape."
Update: TalkLeft: "Wesley Clark blasts Dick Cheney."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "It's Dead Even
The final national polls all show the presidential race within the margin of error:
CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Bush leading 49% to 47% -- 'a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.' In addition, they are 'evenly split among likely voters in six major battleground states.' Fox News has Kerry ahead 47% to 45%. Pew Research Center has Kerry ahead 46% to 45%. NBC News/Wall Street Journal has Bush ahead 48% to 47%. CBS News/New York Times has Bush ahead 49% to 46%. The tracking polls also show a dead heat: Zogby/Retuers - Tied at 48%; Fox News - Kerry leads 47% to 46%; ABC News/Washington Post - Tied at 48%; Rasmussen - Bush leads 48% to 47%. The electoral vote tallies also show a very close race; in many cases, just one state could tip the balance to either candidate. Electoral Vote Predictor - Kerry 283, Bush 246; National Journal - Bush 217, Kerry 184 with 137 tied; Election Projection - Bush 286, Kerry 252; Ed Fitzgerald - Bush 255-263, Kerry 246-258."
Update: USA Today: "Sen. John Kerry has erased President Bush's modest lead and the two candidates head into Election Day tied at 49%-49%, a nationwide USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows as an extraordinarily bitter and expensive campaign prepared to end. Across the dozen battleground states expected to determine the winner, Kerry holds a 5-percentage-point edge [~] including small leads among likely voters in the critical states of Ohio and Florida. He trails by a similar margin in the third big battleground, Pennsylvania."
Update: Matthew Gross: "Final polls almost."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "Much has been made about the possible undersampling of cell phone users in political polls this year. (For example, see our earlier post on the subject.) A Zogby/Rock the Vote poll 'conducted exclusively on mobile phones' finds Sen. John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters."
8:38:47 AM 
|
