2004 Presidential Election
President Bush leads Senator Kerry 47% to 42% in Colorado in a new Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll, according to the Rocky [October 18, 2004, "Bush gains in poll"]. From the article, "President Bush has pulled ahead of Sen. John Kerry in Colorado on the strength of increased popularity among women, according to a Rocky Mountain News/News 4 poll. Bush leads by 5 points, just outside the poll's margin of error and up from a 1-point edge last month. His advantage includes a plurality of women, a change from previous polls that showed female voters preferred Kerry. Overall, the president has the support of 47 percent of respondents who said they were likely to vote Nov. 2. Kerry has 42 percent, and Ralph Nader has 3 percent. Five percent remain undecided, and another 3 percent refused to say whom they'll vote for."
Here's an analysis of a very divided electorate from the Denver Post [October 18, 2004, "Presidential race turns into guessing game"]. They link the AP electoral college map.
There is a clear difference between John Kerry and George Bush on the stewardship of public land, according to the Denver Post [October 17, 2004, "Candidates differ sharply on uses for public land"]. From the article, "Overshadowed by war and the economy, the condition of America's air, water and public lands has not been a major issue in the race for the presidency in 2004, just as it wasn't in 2000, but the two men present the West with starkly different plans. Observers say that with another four years, Bush would continue his production-oriented policies, usually siding with industry. Kerry would likely shift back to the preservation-oriented era of Clinton, generally siding with conservationists."
Taegan Goddard: "Ruy Teixeira highlights some of the more interesting findings from the latest Newsweek poll: Independents favor Kerry/Edwards by 11 points, 51-40; First-time voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 21, 57-36; Early voters favor Kerry/Edwards by 9, 52-43; As we noted earlier, as much as 30 percent of the electorate may vote early in this election."
TalkLeft: "The future of the Supreme Court under Bush vs. Kerry."
Electoral-vote.com: "Kerry's debate lift continues today as a new ARG poll in New Hampshire breaks the tie there and puts him ahead there 49% to 45%. The MoE is 4%, so this should still be considered a statistical tie. The few other state polls don't show much movement. On the state graphs, the lookback window for the regression lines has been dropped to 30 days on the grounds that July and August polls really don't matter much any more. The predicted graph is still there, but you have to work for it. It is at www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct18p.html today, at oct19p.html tomorrow etc. There is no bookmarkable page for it, to discourage its use."
"The Los Angeles Times has a story on polling too. It points out, as most experts already know, that an incumbent president rarely gets even more than 1% of the popular vote than the final polls show. If an incumbent is polling, 47%, 48% just before the election, that is probably what he will get. In contrast, the challenger always does much better than the final polls indicate."
Update: John Palfrey: "The quite wonderful, fully addictive Electoral-Vote.com is seeking further backups, and thinking through their RSS strategy as well. Seems they've been victims of attacks (why?)."
Update: Taegan Goddard: "This morning's Reuters/Zogby tracking poll shows Sen. John Kerry pulling into a statistical dead heat with President Bush 'in a seesawing battle for the White House.' Kerry and Bush are now deadlocked at 45%. The Rasmussen Tracking Poll also has the race tied, at 47% apiece. The TIPP tracking poll shows Bush leading 49% to 45%. Here are some notable state polls: Colorado - Bush 47, Kerry 42 (Rocky Mountain News); New Hampshire - Kerry 49, Bush 45 (Research 2000); Wisconsin - Kerry 48, Bush 47 (Rasmussen). Reviewing the electoral vote tallies: Electoral Vote Predictor shows no clear winner - Kerry 257, Bush 247; Election Projection gives a slight edge to the president - Bush 274, Kerry 264."
Update: Josh Marshall: "Just out, CBS/NYT poll: Bush 47%, Kerry 45%. President's approval rating, 44%."
6:17:51 AM 
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