2004 Presidential Election
Here's a story about last night's Vice Presidential debate from the AP via the Rocky Mountain News [October 6, 2004, "Cheney, Edwards go toe-to-toe in debate"]. From the article, "Both candidates got some encouragement from post-debate polls. Cheney fared best in an ABC News poll of a Republican-leaning group of registered voters who watched the debate, with 43 percent giving Cheney the edge, while 35 percent said Edwards won. The Democrat was viewed more positively in a poll of 178 undecided voters by CBS News that found more of this crucial group thought he had won, 41 percent, than thought Cheney had won, 28 percent. The two candidates, seated at a table just a few feet from each other at Case Western Reserve University, tore into each other repeatedly. Edwards accused the administration of 'not being straight with the American people' about conditions in Iraq and of presiding over the biggest job losses since the Depression."
Mike Littwin analyzes the debate in his column in today's Rocky [October 6, 2004, "Littwin: Cheney had uphill battle in debate"]. He writes, "You could almost feel sorry for Dick Cheney - and that's no small order. To win the debate, Cheney couldn't just win the debate. For the vice-presidential debate to make any actual difference, Dick Cheney had to change the conversation...As entertaining as this debate was - and Edwards, the lawyer, was just as prone to attack as Cheney was - it should prove to be virtually meaning-free. The next presidential debate comes Friday night. And the stakes haven't changed for Friday at all."
Here's the coverage of the debate from the Denver Post [October 6, 2004, "Hardball at VP debate"]. From the article, "Cheney and Edwards got some encouraging news from post-debate polls. An ABC News poll of debate watchers said the vice president had won. A CBS survey of undecideds said Edwards had triumphed. Edwards was on the attack from the opening moments of the debate. Cheney sought methodically - sometimes sarcastically - to rebut his rival's claims. Edwards said that in addition to mismanaging the war in Iraq, the administration had Osama bin Laden cornered in the mountains of Afghanistan at one point. But, he said, Bush turned over the hunt for the mastermind behind the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks to Afghan warlords...'I believe marriage is between a man and a woman and so does John Kerry,' Edwards said. But, he added, 'We should not use the Constitution to divide this country.' Edwards also charged that Cheney, as the chief executive officer of Halliburton, pushed to lift U.S. sanctions against Iran, did business with countries that were 'sworn enemies of the United States,' and that Halliburton paid millions of dollars in fines for providing false information 'just like Enron and Ken Lay,' the now indicted former chief."
The Denver Post editorial staff analyzes the Vice-presidential debate in today's issue [October 6, 2004, "Mission accomplished for Cheney, Edwards"]. From the editorial, "The debate between Republican Dick Cheney and Democrat John Edwards was an entertaining heavyweight fight in which nobody flinched except the moderator, who at one point lost track of the 30-second rule. Cheney and Edwards clashed over everything from Iraq to the economy and health care. Their barbs were pointed and personal, but somehow they never crossed the line to disrespect. Cheney put on rose-colored glasses from the outset, declaring that progress was being made in Iraq and aggressively supporting the decision to invade...The senator from North Carolina said time and again that Cheney drew the wrong connection between Iraq and 9/11. Osama bin Laden was responsible for the 9/11 attacks, he said, criticizing Bush for outsourcing his capture to unreliable Afghan warlords."
Electoral-vote.com: "John Edwards won the vice-presidential debate 41% to 28% among uncommitted voters according to a CBS poll. An online poll conducted by MSNBC makes the margin of Edwards victory even larger: 67% to 33%. While the MSNBC poll was not a scientific poll, it did have 885,000 responses, so it was a very large poll of Internet users. The effect of the first presidential debate is starting to kick in. Kerry is surging and Bush is dropping. Kerry has retaken the lead in all-important Ohio by 49% to 48%, New Mexico by 46% to 43%, and Iowa by 48% to 47%. While all of these are within the margin of error, previous polls had Bush ahead in these states by more than the margin of error. Clearly the forward motion Kerry has been experiencing in the national polls this week is starting to show up in the state polls as well. On the other hand, Bush has taken the lead in Pennsylvania by a margin of 48% to 47%. I got tons of mail about averaging. The response is overwhelmingly against averaging. When I wasn't doing it, many people said I should do it. Now that I am doing it, many people say I shouldn't. If I may paraphrase a famous Republican, "You can please some of the people all of the time and you can please all of the people some of the time but you can't please all the people all the time." I dropped the averaging and went back to the old scheme of listing the most recent poll. If two polls have the same middle date, the shorter one wins. If two (or more) polls have exactly the same polling interval, they are averaged."
Democratic partisan, Colorado Luis writes, "It's funny to watch the media types run to anoint Cheney the winner, like they're afraid they'll lose their Kewl Kid status if they name the Democrat the winner twice in a row. And sure -- unlike Bush, Cheney is capable of thinking on his feet, so he didn't humiliate himself the same way Bush did last week."
Republican partisans, Blogs for Bush writes, "And the clueless is... CBS. While most pundits are agreeing Cheney won the debate, Dan Rather and his cronies are fulfilling their anti-Bush mission with a no holds barred assault on common sense."
The Denver Post fact checks both Cheney and Edwards [October 6, 2004, "Both men fractured some facts"].
Update: Taegan Goddard is pointing to this year's Florida ballot.
Update: Taegan Goddard: "A Sacred Heart University poll finds President Bush would beat Sen. John Kerry, 48% to 43% among likely voters, if the election were held today. However, the poll interviews began before the first presidential debate last week. Update: A new Democracy Corps survey shows Kerry moving into the lead, 49% to 48%. The new Economist poll also shows Kerry with a one point lead, 47% to 46%. Here are the more notable recent state polls: New Mexico - Kerry 46, Bush 43 (Albuquerque Journal); California - Kerry 49, Bush 40 (Field Poll); Iowa - Kerry 47, Bush 46 (University of Minnesota); Missouri - Bush 49, Kerry 47 (Survey USA); Washington - Kerry 54, Bush 43 (Survey USA); North Carolina - Bush 52, Kerry 45 (Survey USA); Ohio - Kerry 49, Bush 48 (Survey USA); Florida - Kerry 47, Bush 45 (ARG); New Hampshire - Kerry 47, Bush 47 (ARG); Pennsylvania - Kerry 50, Bush 43 (West Chester University); New Jersey - Kerry 49, Bush 46 (Quinnipiac)."
6:17:38 AM 
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