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Sunday, November 14, 2004 |
WorldChanging: "The International Monetary Fund might have to move some time in the next four years, according to Clyde Prestowitz, on the November 12, 2004 evening edition of public radio's Marketplace.
The development agency's charter dictates that it be located in the member country with the largest economy, and the IMF HQ has been in Washington, DC for nearly 60 years.
But the current U.S. federal deficit, as well as trade imbalances that have Americans consuming $600 billion more than they save or produce, may cause some international banks to reconsider their investments in the U.S., which could drop us down to second - or maybe further. Says Prestowitz:
We consider ourselves the unchallenged leader, the best ever, but the ground is really shifting beneath our feet...if one of the central banks of China, or Japan, or Korea, Taiwan or Singapore, decides that we're not such a hot investment anymore, the dollar will fall like a rock. In fact, some time in the next four years, the dollar is almost certain to drop by as much as 50% or even more against some key currencies...the E.U. is only a 10% drop away in the dollar's value from being the world's biggest economy, and Asia is on the march.
The U.S. will soon no longer have the highest per capita income or be the biggest market in the world for most products. It will no longer set all the standards. Our technological leadership will diminish."
VHeadline: "Whatever happens in the 'planned devaluation' of the US$ ... US trade deficits continue to grow. This is called the J-curve by analysts, meaning that Americans go on buying things from abroad (like oil and Chinese, Japanese or Indian goods to fill their supermarkets) despite those imports costing more in devalued dollars, so increasing the trade deficit for some while.
After that 'while', New Economy gurus claim, the curve goes down and an awful lot of Americans lose their jobs. The gurus keep their jobs, and a Happy Few of the new jobless will get work producing goods to fill the empty spaces foreign goods used to occupy on supermarket shelves.
And one thing is sure: if the US$ falls fast and far against the Euro, ¥en and likely not the Yuan ... then oil exporters will have little or no choice but to fully switch to Euro pricing.
While the US$ still dominates world trade (about 52% of all trade is transacted in dollars), the Euro has come from nowhere to take about 22% of all trade transactions.
Since US$ devaluation will bring inflation to the USA, it is better not to send those weakened dollars back home, as well as demand Euros when exporting anything at all.
This will be very bad news to the US economy ... but could be good news for the rest of the world's economy, especially on the front of Peak Oil and structural undersupply of world oil markets.
US$ devaluation may be a salutary shock to the USA, and an opportunity for making energy transition a real world imperative, not a freaky slogan."
9:42:57 PM 
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I am still trying to cope with four more years with that fool in power. So the mind wanders off to places where life follows its normal course. The winter market in Jokkmokk is already in my mind. I hope they will be moblogging the event again next year. For now we can watch the Jokkmokk webcam.
Kära vänner i Jokkmokk, jag hoppas att det blir fint igen nästa år.
12:20:00 AM
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OfficialWire: "American democracy has a dark little secret. In a typical presidential election, two million ballots are simply chucked in the garbage, marked 'spoiled' and not counted. A dive into the electoral dumpster reveals something special about these votes left to rot. In a careful county-by-county, precinct-by-precinct analysis of the Florida 2000 race, the US Civil Rights Commission discovered that 54% of the votes in the spoilage bin were cast by African-Americans. And Florida, Heaven help us, is typical. Nationwide, the number of Black votes 'disappeared' into the spoiled pile is approximately one million. The other million in the no-count pit come mainly from Hispanic, Native-American and poor white precincts, a decidedly Democratic demographic."
This could well mean the end of the Democratic Party and the perpetual rule of the Republicans.
12:02:56 AM
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