2003 Denver Mayoral Runoff Election
Penfield Tate did throw in with John Hickenlooper yesterday according to the Denver Post. Hickenlooper supporters are already adding Zavaras and Tate totals to Hickenlooper and pronouncing him the new mayor. Don Mares has a large vote gap to fill (23,877), just based on the muncipal election results. I know that Hickenlooper is not counting any votes yet, early voting hasn't started.
A look at past elections adds a surprising twist to the story. In 1987 and 1995, elections that were far closer before the runoff, more voters showed up at the polls at the runoff than the municipal election. In 1987 the number was a +16,783 and in 1995 the increase was +20,165. In 1991 there was a decrease of -8,922. Some pundits explain '87 and '95 by asserting that it was the get out the vote efforts by Pena and Webb that put them over the top after losing the municipal election.
What conclusions can we draw? Denver elections can be surprising and unpredictable. Remember, the voters had 7 great candidates to choose from in the municpal election this year and 64,435 (56.7%) did not vote for Hickenlooper. This election was closer to 1983, featuring Pena, McNichols and Webb, than the '87 and '95 elections. Police and Firefighters unions have not spoken. City employees are very tuned in and they vote. Many people look to city employees for advice on election issues. So if some of Zavaras' and Tate's support peels off to Mares and unions get behind him and he nails most of the increase (if any) in voting he could still surprise. If I was a betting man I'd give the election to Hickenlooper though.
That's what Jim Spencer is saying in his column in the Post today. Says Spencer, "Should Don Mares beat John Hickenlooper in the June 3 mayoral runoff, I will literally eat these words at Mares' inauguration." Now that might be enough to get out the vote for Mares. Heh. Here's the Post's editorial analysis of Tate's endorsement.
The Post has an article featuring Don Mares and his view that he can make up the difference in votes. Mares is quoted as saying, "The score is 0-to-0," in reference to the fact that no votes have been cast yet.
The Rocky Mountain News is saying that Don Mares' is questioning John Hickenloopers voting record. From the article, "John Hickenlooper didn't vote in the past mayoral election or the election in which voters approved a tax for a new football stadium - the same stadium that vaulted the brewmeister into the public eye."
The Post is also reporting that Mares' campaign is having trouble fundraising and deciding on strategy. The article highlights a rift over attacking Hickenlooper.
John Hickenlooper is running a new tv ad according to the Denver Post. Hickenlooper's ad is not up on the website yet but here's the link anyway.
The Post has an article about the budget deficit with comments from Don Mares about how he would handle it. John Hickenlooper is mentioned as conceptually supporting Mayor Webb's plans. Fees for trash collections seem to be off the table. Mares is quoted as saying, "When I walk in the door, I have the ability to look at the whole problem anew. Given that his savings come at the hands of city workers first, when we have fleet maintenance funds and other funds we could go after, then I intend to not accept his direction and take the budget cuts in a different direction." I think Don Mares has given up on getting a Webb endorsement. Here's the coverage from the Rocky.
John Hickenlooper picked up the endorsement of the the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties yesterday according to the Denver Business Journal.
6:15:36 AM 
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