Tuesday, January 6, 2004

2004 Presidential Election The latest New Hampshire numbers from the American Research Group tracking poll. Thanks to the Daily Kos for the link. Here's a story about a CNN/Time poll from CNN.com. A new O'Leary Report /Zogby International poll shows America evenly divided between Red (Republican) and Blue (Democrats). From the article, "The O'Leary Report /Zogby International poll of Red States (those that voted for George W. Bush in 2000) and Blues States (those that supported Al Gore) reveals a nation deeply divided by party, ideology, the presidency of George W. Bush, and values. The survey was conducted by Zogby International commissioned by the O'Leary Report. Polling of 1,200 likely voters was conducted December 15-17, 2003 from Zogby's headquarters in Utica, NY. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Slight weights were added to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. The poll reveals that as we enter what promises to be a very contentious 2004 presidential contest, George W. Bush and his Democratic challenger will be campaigning in two different, yet parallel universes. In the 2000 Presidential election, Red (Bush) states included AL, AR, AZ, CO, FL, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NV, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, WV, WY (and Alaska, which Zogby does not normally include in polling). Blue (Gore states) were CA, CT, DC, DE, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NJ, NM, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT, WA, WI, (and Hawaii, which Zogby doesn[base ']t normally poll)." Thanks to Taegan Goddard for the link. Latest CNN/USA TODAY/Gallup national poll. Thanks to the Daily Kos for the link. 7:45:04 PM

Denver November 2004 Election Governor Owens expects that the legislature will propose changes to TABOR and Amendment 23 and ask voters to approve them in the November election, according to the Denver Post ["January 6, 2004, "Compromise predicted on easing TABOR limits, Amend. 23 funding"]. From the article, "Changes to the 'ratchet effect' and suspensions in the Amendment 23 school funding increases would have to be approved by a two-thirds vote of each house of the General Assembly before heading to a statewide vote, according to legislative legal services. An alternate route to put changes before voters would require proponents to gather signatures in a citizen initiative. The 'ratchet effect' that Owens talked about says that if the state's revenues decline because of a recession, for instance, legislators can't return to pre-recession levels of spending. They can only increase spending incrementally. The mechanism is known as the "ratchet effect" because it clamps down on spending during lean economic times. Senate Minority Leader Joan Fitz-Gerald, D-Golden, and House Minority Leader Andrew Romanoff, D-Denver, have said they would be willing to make concessions. They said they would agree to suspend Amendment 23's required 1 percent annual increases during bad economic times if Republicans agree to undo the TABOR ratchet. (Rutt) Bridges and state Treasurer Mike Coffman agree that the Gallagher Amendment must be included in the reform. Gallagher limits the property tax residents pay to 45 percent of the total collected. Unlike Owens, Coffman has proposed changes to all three constitutional amendments." 6:44:01 AM

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