2004 Presidential Election
Here's the coverage of John Kerry's victory in last night's Iowa caucuses from the AP via the Rocky Mountain News [January 20, 2004, "Kerry Shakes Up Race With Decisive Win"]. From the article, "With a decisive victory in Iowa, John Kerry reclaimed the high expectations that ushered in his presidential candidacy and dashed any notion that Howard Dean's march to the Democratic nomination was preordained. Kerry, a Massachusetts senator and decorated Vietnam War veteran, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards buried Dean in third place Tuesday night in the Iowa presidential caucuses and brought a probable end to the political career of two-time presidential candidate Dick Gephardt. It was a startling turnaround in a race that now swings to New Hampshire and the nation's first presidential primary next Tuesday."
Mike Littwin weighs in on John Kerry's Iowa victory in his column in today's Rocky [January 20, 2004, "Littwin: As Dean's magic fizzles in caucuses, supporters wonder what went wrong"]. According to Littwin, "But being famously stubborn can't erase what just took place. Here's what Dean had coming into Iowa: money, enthusiasm, bloggers, ground troops, more money, endorsements. He had Gore, Bradley, Harkin. He had outsiders. He had insiders. He had the message that would finally energize young voters. He had meet-ups. He had the Internet. He had stood up to George W. Bush. He had taken on the war that, for a sizable number of Democrats, was the central issue of the day. And here's what he takes out of Iowa after two years of campaigning: a not-fast-enough plane to New Hampshire."
There is a point here. Are Internet technologies, specifically weblogs, and a campaign organized around them really be the winning strategy in elections? I know a bunch of us thought there was a sea change occurring in politics, until yesterday. It is true that John Kerry and John Edwards are following Howard Dean's lead with their use of Internet technologies so maybe we're not wrong about their effects. Wesley Clark's supporters organized their draft movement using the Web. But it's clear, to me at least, that politics still come down to the candidate that can get support when votes are cast, no matter the methods used. A negative campaign can still take down a candidate as Dick Gephardt proved again. Gephardt did bring down Dean but with the unintended consequence of ending his own campaign.
Ed Cone is thankfuly that another Internet bubble has popped. Quoting Cone, "Nothing against Howard Dean -- he has done the Dems a real service by firing people up, by pushing his opponents to get their acts together, and most of all by pioneering online campaigning. But you need more than tools to win. You need a candidate, and a message. Dean's message, perhaps unfairly, was perceived by many to be angry and limited. Edwards is optimistic, Kerry has gravitas. They both speak better in person and on TV than does the doctor."
Dian Carman shares the reactions of some Iowa caucus attendees in her column in today's Denver Post [January 20, 2004, "Maddening math doesn't help caucuses' iffy relevance"]. From the article, "In this competition, Edwards appeared to be the runaway victor. Edwards, who was barely registering in the Iowa polls just weeks ago, rallied to a second-place finish and declared it a sign of good things to come. Briggs, an Edwards fan, tried to explain the Southerner's appeal to Iowans this way: He's polite."
Taegan Goddard looks at yesterday's Iowa Caucuses.
Update: Here's the latest American Research Group tracking poll for New Hampshire. The numbers show the race tightening there prior to last nights Iowa caucuses. Howard Dean is on top with 28%, folowed by Wesley Clark, 20%, John Kerry, 19%, and John Edwards, 8%.
Update: How about a schedule of candidate events in New Hampshire this week? Here you go. Compliments of PoliticsNH.com.
Update: John Kerry is closing in on Howard Dean according to a 7News/Suffolk Poll out of Boston. From the article, "Howard Dean remains on top of our exclusive 7News Suffolk University poll with 23 percent but Kerry's at 20 precent - close enough statistically to now make this race too close to call. Wesley Clark--at 15 percent--is still within shouting distance, but Iowa runner-up John Edwards and Joe Lieberman are far behind the leaders, suggesting New Hampshire could turn into a Kerry-Dean showdown." Thanks to Taegan Goddard for the link.
Update: Lawrence Lessig is looking at the race for the Democratic nomination and wondering, Can Kerry carry?
Update: If you're going to New Hampshire, to help the candidate of your choice, it's 30 hours, 23 minutes 1952.04 miles. Take I-25 to I-76 to I-80 to I-480 to I71 to 1-90 to I-87 to NY-7 to VT-9 to I-91. Exit at Exit 3.
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